Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:36:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5C 0x5ca1…0494 crypto 116 markets active 2h ago coverage 630d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate94%103W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% +$23
politics 33% −$17
other 0% −$6
economics 0% $0
tech 0% −$4
sports 0% +$2
world 0% +$2
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 8 +4.9% -5.1% 100% 12% -9.0%
≤90d 30 -1.8% -11.1% 97% 3% -9.5%
all 110 -1.3% -10.7% 94% 15% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 15% -9.5%
10% -19.2% 5% -18.2%
15% -27.1% 3% -26.1%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

630d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses103 / 7
Open positions6
Markets (closed)110 / 116
History coverage630d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? No 98¢ 98¢ $91 $91 −$0 (-0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? No 97¢ 99¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 10? Jun 11 $114 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 08 $3 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by May 31? Jun 08 $4 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 08 $6 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 08 $5 +$2 +30%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $248 in May? May 30 $3 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 22? May 26 $153 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16? May 21 $153 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 8? May 11 $151 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? May 04 $156 +$1 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Solana reach $160 in April? May 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 01 $4 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April? May 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 25? Apr 29 $144 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 19? Apr 20 $145 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $145 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on April 17? Apr 18 $153 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $148 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $162 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on April 7? Apr 08 $162 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in March? Apr 03 $3 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? Apr 03 $6 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on April 1? Apr 03 $149 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $155 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? Mar 29 $147 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 25? Mar 25 $153 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $153 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on March 16? Mar 20 $157 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 13? Mar 14 $157 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 11? Mar 12 $157 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 8? Mar 11 $154 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 07 $163 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 6? Mar 06 $157 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3? Mar 05 $155 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 1? Mar 02 $158 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 27? Mar 01 $158 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 25? Feb 26 $159 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 22? Feb 23 $127 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 20? Feb 21 $154 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 17? Feb 19 $156 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 15? Feb 15 $154 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 13? Feb 14 $159 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on February 11? Feb 12 $157 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on February 9 Feb 10 $155 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on February 7 Feb 07 $157 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on February 3? Feb 04 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on February 1 Feb 02 $153 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 30? Jan 31 $151 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $91 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $6 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $6 3d
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $4 5d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $114 9d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $4 20d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 20d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $153 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $153 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $151 41d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 77¢ $5 41d
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $248 in May? BUY No 92¢ $3 41d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $156 45d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $144 54d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 19? BUY No 100¢ $145 59d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $145 60d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April? BUY No 100¢ $4 60d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $153 62d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $148 65d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $3 67d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $4 67d
Will Solana reach $160 in April? BUY No 99¢ $2 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $162 70d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $162 71d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on April 1? BUY No 100¢ $149 78d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 30? BUY No 100¢ $155 80d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $147 82d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $150 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.89 · official $114.89 (match) · 243 history records