Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:35:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5C 0x5ca1…4268 sports 138 markets active 1h ago coverage 343d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$831 (+10%) realized +$810 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate28%37W / 94L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$95
14 days−$26
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$153
other 36% +$558
world 0% −$14
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -14.6% -22.7% 24% 24% -29.6%
≤30d 74 +40.8% +27.4% 32% 31% -13.1%
≤90d 110 +10.3% -0.2% 27% 26% -23.6%
all 131 +10.4% -0.1% 28% 27% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.1% 27% -2.4%
10% -9.7% 27% -11.7%
15% -18.4% 26% -20.3%
20% -26.4% 24% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$40 · ×2.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

343d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized+$810
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses37 / 94
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions7
Markets (closed)131 / 138
History coverage343d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $67 $93 +$25 (+38%)
Will Coco Gauff be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $58 $53 −$5 (-9%)
Will Emma Raducanu be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $16 $28 +$12 (+78%)
Will Madison Keys be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $25 $15 −$9 (-38%)
Will Diana Shnaider be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+59%)
Will Frances Tiafoe be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $16 −$3 -16%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $66 −$5 -7%
Will Tommy Paul be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 15 $20 −$3 -17%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Qinwen Zheng be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 14 $32 −$18 -57%
Will Iga Świątek be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 14 $13 −$3 -20%
Will Belinda Bencic be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 13 $12 −$2 -16%
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 13 $6 +$1 +19%
Will Alexander Bublik be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 13 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 12 $2 $0 -9%
Will Arthur Fils be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 12 $48 −$20 -41%
Will Pedri be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -29%
Will Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 12 $17 −$8 -50%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $20 +$20 +97%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Hubert Hurkacz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 10 $37 −$11 -31%
Will Victoria Mboko be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 10 $18 −$9 -51%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $15 +$15 +97%
Hurkacz vs. Fucsovics: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 10 $20 +$15 +73%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $5 +$3 +57%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $63 −$63 -100%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris Jun 09 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Jack Draper be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 09 $132 −$55 -41%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 09 $20 $0 -1%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $28 +$78 +278%
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 08 $19 −$2 -12%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 07 $48 −$47 -98%
Will Flavio Cobolli be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 07 $4 +$1 +26%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $20 −$12 -58%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $4 $0 -3%
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 06 $29 +$23 +80%
Foggia: Lucia Bronzetti vs Leyre Romero Gormaz Jun 06 $42 −$42 -99%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $5 +$109 +2384%
Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $4 +$131 +3263%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $229 +$90 +39%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $9 −$2 -16%
Ruud vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 36.5 May 31 $51 +$32 +62%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $296 −$264 -89%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $221 −$217 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $101 +$53 +52%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 31 $232 +$125 +54%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 29 $102 +$158 +155%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik May 29 $51 −$50 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Yulia Starodubtseva May 29 $158 +$91 +58%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Viktorija Golubic May 29 $42 −$41 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 28 $116 −$115 -99%
Set Handicap: Mboko (-1.5) vs Siniakova (+1.5) May 28 $30 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Madison Keys be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $14 24h
Will Tommy Paul be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 24h
Will Emma Raducanu be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 24h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm BUY Zachary Svajda 57¢ $15 2d
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 58¢ $30 2d
Will Qinwen Zheng be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL Yes 1¢ $14 2d
Will Iga Świątek be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 2d
Will Emma Raducanu be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL Yes 5¢ $7 2d
Will Emma Raducanu be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Will Emma Raducanu be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Will Emma Raducanu be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will Emma Raducanu be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Coco Gauff be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 4¢ $12 2d
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 2¢ $17 2d
Will Coco Gauff be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 2d
Will Emma Raducanu be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Diana Shnaider be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 2d
Will Emma Raducanu be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will Emma Raducanu be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Belinda Bencic be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 3d
Will Emma Raducanu be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 3d
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Will Alexander Bublik be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 3d
Will Iga Świątek be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 3d
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 4d
Will Arthur Fils be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 4d
Will Pedri be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $200.41 · official $200.42 (match) · 1406 history records