Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:14:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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5C 0x5ca0…fc36 crypto 572 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (211 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$13,930 (+118%) realized +$14,002 · open −$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate28%259W / 675L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day211.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$260now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$289
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (211 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-50.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 499 -91.6% -92.4% 4% 3% -84.2%
≤30d 934 -45.3% -50.5% 28% 22% -35.1%
≤90d 934 -45.3% -50.5% 28% 22% -35.1%
all 934 -45.3% -50.5% 28% 22% -35.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover211.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -50.5% 22% -35.1%
10% ← realistic here -55.2% 17% -41.3%
15% -59.5% 11% -47.0%
20% -63.5% 8% -52.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -99% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$260
Realized+$14,002
Unrealized−$72
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses259 / 675
Open positions14
Markets (closed)934 / 572
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day211.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 934 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Down 5¢ 52¢ $6 $65 +$59 (+930%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Up 69¢ 100¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+45%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Down 46¢ 100¢ $13 $29 +$16 (+120%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 87¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 479 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $3 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 50m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $260.37 · official $252.31 · 3500 history records