Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:18:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c9e…bdb6 world 135 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,790 (-2%) realized −$1,790 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 115L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$599per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$83
7 days−$115
14 days−$271
30 days−$328
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$1,001
politics 14% −$296
other 6% −$126
finance 5% −$81
sports 5% −$78
culture 3% −$6
economics 2% −$39
tech 1% −$67
crypto 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -4.4% -13.5% 0% 0% -13.2%
≤30d 31 +2.4% -7.3% 6% 6% -12.4%
≤90d 96 +16.7% +5.6% 10% 7% -11.8%
all 126 +11.1% +0.5% 9% 6% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.5% 6% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -9.1% 5% -20.2%
15% -17.9% 3% -27.9%
20% -26.0% 2% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$659) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$15 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$1,790
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions9
Markets (closed)126 / 135
History coverage105d
Avg bet$599
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 39¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+156%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 69¢ 75¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 25¢ 31¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+24%)
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? No 78¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+24%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 77¢ 76¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 72¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+37%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-47%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 21¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-80%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 56¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 30¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 17 $429 −$25 -6%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 16 $250 −$5 -2%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 15 $620 −$39 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $185 −$15 -8%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 14 $108 −$7 -7%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Jun 14 $221 −$3 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $738 −$12 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $260 −$8 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $260 −$7 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 10 $260 −$3 -1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $152 −$5 -3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 09 $519 −$19 -4%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 08 $260 −$12 -5%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $659 −$21 -3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 08 $220 −$48 -22%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $739 −$5 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 05 $196 $0 -0%
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima Jun 04 $260 −$12 -5%
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? Jun 04 $260 −$9 -4%
Will PPI YoY be between 6.0% and 6.9% in May? Jun 04 $7 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 03 $220 −$3 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 03 $739 −$12 -2%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 02 $1,179 −$10 -1%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 01 $479 −$12 -3%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele May 21 $440 −$16 -4%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 20 $115 +$1 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31? May 20 $7 $0 +3%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 20 $98 −$1 -1%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? May 20 $260 −$7 -3%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 19 $220 −$4 -2%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 18 $220 −$7 -3%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 18 $2,190 −$52 -2%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1,251 +$6 +0%
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 12 $260 −$10 -4%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? May 10 $639 −$64 -10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 08 $700 −$33 -5%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? May 08 $440 −$37 -8%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 08 $17 $0 -2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 7? May 07 $8 $0 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 in May? May 05 $444 −$24 -6%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $416 −$6 -2%
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? May 03 $260 −$7 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 03 $659 −$8 -1%
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? May 03 $219 −$3 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 02 $220 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 25 $878 −$14 -2%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? Apr 25 $296 −$4 -2%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 24 $1,782 −$68 -4%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 24 $1,562 −$23 -2%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 17? Apr 24 $82 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $177 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $180 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 77¢ $230 29h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 79¢ $15 29h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 78¢ $250 29h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 64¢ $172 38h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 65¢ $178 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $170 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 25¢ $185 44h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 24¢ $100 2d
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 25¢ $108 2d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House SELL No 64¢ $218 3d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House BUY No 64¢ $109 3d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House BUY No 64¢ $112 3d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 54¢ $160 4d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 60¢ $182 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $245 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $250 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $204 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $23 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $250 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $131 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $2 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $57 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $195 4d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 61¢ $49 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 61¢ $206 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 62¢ $50 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 62¢ $210 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 62¢ $252 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.99 · official $0.37 · 1602 history records