Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:20:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c9a…c65d sports 158 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$44 (-0%) realized −$38 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate49%65W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day39.8pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$361now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63
7 days+$660
14 days+$31
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% −$786
world 25% +$593
tech 14% −$12
crypto 9% +$2
other 5% +$140
economics 4% −$1
finance 2% −$14
politics 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -1.3% -10.7% 51% 14% -0.9%
≤30d 132 +2.2% -7.5% 49% 27% -10.1%
≤90d 132 +2.2% -7.5% 49% 27% -10.1%
all 132 +2.2% -7.5% 49% 27% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 27% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.4% 25% -18.7%
15% -24.5% 17% -26.6%
20% -31.9% 16% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$36 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$361
Realized−$38
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses65 / 67
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions26
Markets (closed)132 / 158
History coverage21d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day39.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? No 84¢ 92¢ $87 $96 +$9 (+10%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 71¢ 70¢ $41 $40 −$1 (-1%)
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Team Evictix 45¢ 46¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 89¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 21¢ 15¢ $35 $25 −$10 (-29%)
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Evil Geniuses Academy 46¢ 46¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 74¢ 74¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 90¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage ROSE 34¢ 34¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 95¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 76¢ 76¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 94¢ 94¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 95¢ 94¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 69¢ 68¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 95¢ 94¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 76¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 97¢ 97¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 81¢ 80¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 78¢ 78¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 81¢ 80¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 98¢ 97¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 93¢ 93¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 99¢ 98¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 95¢ 95¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 16¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $99 +$27 +27%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 179.5 Jun 17 $93 +$89 +95%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 15 $59 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $48 −$47 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -73%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $885 +$42 +5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $395 +$126 +32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,120 +$467 +42%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $21 +$7 +33%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bret Johnsen be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $549 +$1 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will Gwynne Shotwell be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Sp Jun 12 $92 −$8 -9%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 12 $494 −$2 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $491 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $495 +$5 +1%
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? Jun 12 $12 $0 +1%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -45%
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 -5%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 12 $6 $0 -1%
Will Waymo launch in New York City by June 30 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 -4%
Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by June 30? Jun 12 $3 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Jun 12 $3 $0 +2%
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? Jun 12 $4 $0 -0%
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
JD Vance out as VP by June 30? Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30? Jun 12 $6 $0 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $7 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$3 -24%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Jun 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 12 $8 $0 +5%
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? Jun 12 $12 −$1 -7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 12 $12 $0 +2%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by July 31? Jun 12 $15 $0 -2%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $16 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $10 +$12 +120%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $34 $0 -1%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 12 $49 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $376 −$43 -11%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $103 −$1 -1%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $165 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $170 −$1 -1%
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? Jun 12 $197 −$2 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 12 $500 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $2 21m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $1 21m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $1 21m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $1 21m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $1 22m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $1 22m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $1 24m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $1 25m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $2 27m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $1 27m
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 96¢ $3 28m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $1 29m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $1 30m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $1 31m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $1 32m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $2 33m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $1 33m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $1 34m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $2 34m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $1 34m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $1 34m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $1 34m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $57 34m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $1 35m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $1 35m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $1 35m
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 94¢ $3 42m
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 99¢ $2 44m
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 93¢ $2 1h
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr BUY ROSE 34¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $360.98 · official $360.98 (match) · 892 history records