Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:06:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c9a…7500 world 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate45%19W / 23L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$9
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$9
other 23% $0
politics 7% $0
crypto 4% $0
sports 3% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.9% -7.8% 33% 11% -6.9%
≤30d 17 +0.2% -9.3% 24% 6% -8.3%
≤90d 17 +0.2% -9.3% 24% 6% -8.3%
all 42 -0.4% -9.9% 45% 2% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 2% -8.6%
10% -18.5% 0% -17.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -25.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.3 per $1 lost it wins $4.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses19 / 23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)42 / 44
History coverage476d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $14 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $52 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $51 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $21 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $25 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $50 +$8 +15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $55 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $41 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $44 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $47 +$1 +2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $3 $0 -6%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $46 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $65 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $47 −$1 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 -7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $44 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 09 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series? Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Jun 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 02 $15 $0 -2%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 29 $15 $0 +1%
Will BTC close above $98K on May 16? May 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 15 $14 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 14 $1 $0 -26%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 12 $15 $0 +0%
Starmer out before July? May 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 09 $15 $0 +1%
ChatGPT #1 app May 9? May 08 $14 $0 +2%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 07 $2 $0 -12%
Will the Alliance for a Great Albania win the most seats in the next A May 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? May 07 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? May 06 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $15 $0 +0%
Israeli military action against Iran by Friday? Mar 23 $15 $0 +1%
Will the CDU/CSU win between 28% and 30% of the vote in the German ele Mar 20 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $10 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $40 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 6h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $13 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $1 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $36 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $14 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $35 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $15 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $5 27h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $6 30h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $51 37h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $51 39h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 44h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 44h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 44h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 46h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 46h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 46h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $21 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $8 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $13 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $24 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $10 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $15 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 29¢ $17 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 29¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 29¢ $18 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.20 · official $50.20 (match) · 133 history records