Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:52:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c98…c228 crypto 1461 markets active 2h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$262 (-4%) realized −$262 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%886W / 575L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day38.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$292now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$64
14 days−$77
30 days−$272
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$386
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -12.3% -20.7% 58% 58% -25.1%
≤30d 1298 -5.0% -14.1% 62% 62% -14.3%
≤90d 1461 -6.6% -15.5% 61% 61% -15.3%
all 1461 -6.6% -15.5% 61% 61% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 61% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 60% -23.4%
15% -31.0% 58% -30.8%
20% -37.8% 41% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$292
Realized−$262
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses886 / 575
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1461 / 1461
History coverage39d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day38.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1461 Trades
no open positions (186 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$4 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +62%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $9 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $8 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $4 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $291.59 · official $291.59 (match) · 2755 history records