Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:33:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c98…fc8a world 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$23 (+1%) realized −$225 · open +$83
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate33%25W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$379now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$31
14 days−$5
30 days−$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 79% −$156
other 8% −$3
politics 7% −$26
crypto 4% +$62
economics 1% $0
finance 0% −$7
tech 0% −$4
sports 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -20.9% -28.4% 42% 42% -22.5%
≤30d 39 +2.2% -7.5% 38% 33% -15.2%
≤90d 76 -10.0% -18.6% 33% 20% -18.1%
all 76 -10.0% -18.6% 33% 20% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 20% -18.1%
10% -26.4% 16% -26.0%
15% -33.5% 12% -33.1%
20% -40.0% 12% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$379
Realized−$225
Unrealized+$83
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses25 / 51
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions16
Markets (closed)76 / 92
History coverage41d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 40¢ 94¢ $63 $149 +$85 (+134%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $64 $66 +$1 (+2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Yes 19¢ 100¢ $10 $50 +$40 (+415%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 48¢ 79¢ $30 $49 +$19 (+63%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 24¢ 21¢ $22 $19 −$3 (-12%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ 23¢ $8 $13 +$6 (+77%)
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ $4 $10 +$6 (+146%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 53¢ 66¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 57¢ 38¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-33%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-41%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 78¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? Yes 15¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-94%)
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? Yes 27¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-85%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 No 18¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-98%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 35¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Netherlands 16¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Curaçao 16¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Netherlands $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? Yes 74¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? No $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? No 52¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $20 −$16 -79%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $25 +$8 +32%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $16 +$5 +29%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +52%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $22 +$4 +19%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $21 +$16 +77%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -60%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $17 −$7 -43%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $15 −$9 -60%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +80%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $12 −$2 -17%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +17%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -40%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 11 $23 −$22 -96%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $2 $0 -28%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 03 $15 −$6 -38%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $37 −$19 -52%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 02 $5 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $26 −$16 -64%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $66 +$55 +83%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $39 +$12 +31%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 31 $61 −$19 -31%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $24 −$12 -48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $287 +$3 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 29 $6 −$6 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 26 $5 +$16 +307%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $6 +$5 +90%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 23 $136 −$25 -19%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026? May 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026? May 22 $0 $0 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $95 +$4 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 19 $10 −$1 -13%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 16 $17 −$12 -72%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? May 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? May 15 $39 −$11 -27%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 15 $8 $0 -4%
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? May 15 $5 +$14 +285%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? May 14 $5 −$1 -19%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 13 $11 −$2 -16%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.9T and 1.2T at market close o May 13 $13 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 12 $76 −$1 -2%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? May 12 $23 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 12 $0 $0 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $14 36m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $0 36m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $20 49m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No $4 51m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $9 57m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $20 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $9 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL Yes 99¢ $23 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $7 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $6 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 98¢ $14 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $6 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $3 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes $0 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 16¢ $3 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $6 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $5 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No $1 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL No 95¢ $19 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 19¢ $1 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 18¢ $1 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? SELL Yes 90¢ $8 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 28¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $378.90 · official $378.92 (match) · 620 history records