Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:03:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5C 0x5c95…bf21 other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,060 (+2%) realized +$1,067 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%14W / 13L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$1,838per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$270est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$993now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,396
7 days+$1,454
14 days+$1,454
30 days+$1,454
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$3,982
sports 46% −$2,763
crypto 3% −$465
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -3.3% -12.5% 56% 52% -5.2%
≤30d 25 -3.3% -12.5% 56% 52% -5.2%
≤90d 26 -3.4% -12.6% 54% 50% -7.9%
all 27 -3.2% -12.4% 52% 48% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 48% -8.1%
10% -20.8% 30% -16.9%
15% -28.5% 22% -24.9%
20% -35.5% 15% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$2,621) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$438 vs −$413 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$993
Realized+$1,067
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses14 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$270
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage121d
Avg bet$1,838
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $2,029 −$2,000 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $335 −$250 -75%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,020 −$525 -52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $508 −$420 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET Jun 20 $1,019 −$95 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET Jun 20 $251 +$50 +20%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $505 +$220 +44%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,621 +$299 +11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $658 +$426 +65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3,360 +$900 +27%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $3,531 +$973 +28%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $753 −$372 -49%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $56 −$52 -93%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5,122 +$398 +8%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $305 −$300 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,059 +$411 +39%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $153 +$364 +238%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,508 +$300 +20%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3,010 +$361 +12%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 −$47 -46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,011 +$428 +21%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $255 −$136 -54%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $507 +$473 +93%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,010 +$528 +52%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $505 −$478 -95%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 12 $15,093 −$692 -5%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 22 $4,997 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $505 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $504 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $2,029 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 13¢ $85 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 49¢ $335 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 33¢ $495 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL No $88 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,020 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 44¢ $508 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $508 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $267 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $510 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $251 38h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 69¢ $505 39h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 79¢ $2,113 40h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 25¢ $262 40h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $508 41h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $658 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,508 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $1,509 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $343 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $381 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $3,023 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $356 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $397 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 44¢ $451 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $508 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes $4 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $56 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $4,012 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $992.73 · official $992.81 (match) · 72 history records