Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:26:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c94…6ba9 crypto 308 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$117 (-4%) realized −$103 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%130W / 177L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days−$199
14 days−$199
30 days−$151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$211
other 26% −$148
sports 21% +$76
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -43.3% -48.7% 25% 24% -24.0%
≤30d 150 -10.6% -19.1% 43% 39% -17.0%
≤90d 307 -8.3% -17.0% 42% 39% -17.4%
all 307 -8.3% -17.0% 42% 39% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 39% -17.4%
10% -25.0% 35% -25.3%
15% -32.2% 32% -32.5%
20% -38.9% 28% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$9 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$103
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses130 / 177
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)307 / 308
History coverage96d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 307 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria leading at halftime? Yes 53¢ 38¢ $52 $38 −$14 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $38 +$15 +40%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $54 −$53 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $35 +$16 +46%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Mclaren Mastercard have the highest constructor score at the 2026 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $228 −$228 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $76 +$423 +558%
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 14 $23 −$21 -91%
Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Australia to win the second half? Jun 14 $31 +$117 +384%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $33 +$19 +57%
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will George Russell achieve the fastest lap in Practice 1 at the 2026 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-17? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$4 -33%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $53 43m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 71¢ $38 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 63¢ $48 4h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 61¢ $6 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $35 12h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 79¢ $8 29h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $61 33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 100¢ $499 34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 15¢ $76 35h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $228 36h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 63¢ $37 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 31¢ $36 2d
Will Mclaren Mastercard have the highest constructor score at the 2026 BUY Yes 64¢ $25 2d
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand SELL No 6¢ $2 2d
Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand BUY No 67¢ $23 2d
Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 1¢ $1 2d
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $41 2d
Australia to win the second half? SELL Yes 100¢ $148 2d
Australia to win the second half? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 2d
Australia to win the second half? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $52 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $33 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 100¢ $28 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.89 · official $37.89 (match) · 789 history records