Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:55:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c94…625c crypto 410 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$153 (-10%) realized −$153 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%175W / 235L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$26
14 days−$41
30 days−$165
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$107
sports 23% +$25
other 9% −$17
world 4% −$24
weather 3% −$11
finance 3% −$15
politics 0% −$3
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +30.5% +18.1% 75% 72% +17.2%
≤30d 379 -10.7% -19.2% 45% 45% -20.5%
≤90d 410 -11.9% -20.3% 43% 42% -19.2%
all 410 -11.9% -20.3% 43% 42% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 42% -19.2%
10% -27.9% 39% -27.0%
15% -34.9% 36% -34.0%
20% -41.3% 32% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$153
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses175 / 235
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)410 / 410
History coverage34d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 410 Trades
no open positions (211 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +14%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $5 +$4 +76%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $2 +$2 +79%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 +$2 +105%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $2 +$2 +76%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 +$4 +180%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 +$2 +101%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +23%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +86%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +124%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +67%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $2 +$2 +86%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +31%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $2 +$3 +146%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 +$2 +90%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +105%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $2 +$1 +57%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +65%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $2 +$2 +105%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $2 +$2 +86%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Jun 11 $2 +$2 +86%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $2 +$2 +76%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $2 +$2 +97%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $2 +$1 +65%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $2 +$2 +93%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $2 +$2 +97%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $2 +$1 +65%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $2 +$3 +124%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $2 +$2 +90%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will CR Brasil win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 70¢ $5 48m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 66¢ $5 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $5 24h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 57¢ $5 26h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $5 27h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $2 32h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 55¢ $2 45h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 55¢ $2 47h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 48¢ $2 2d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 56¢ $2 2d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 49¢ $2 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $2 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 73¢ $2 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $2 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 81¢ $2 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $2 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $2 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 44¢ $2 3d
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) BUY Knicks 59¢ $2 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 40¢ $2 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $2 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $2 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 4d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 52¢ $2 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $2 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 40¢ $2 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 48¢ $2 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 63¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 834 history records