Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:15:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5C 0x5c91…5ccc crypto 1382 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 71d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$448 (+1%) realized +$448 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate81%1126W / 256L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day31.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$215
7 days−$283
14 days−$285
30 days−$293
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$67
weather 3% −$107
other 2% −$94
world 1% −$54
politics 0% −$16
tech 0% −$7
sports 0% −$3
culture 0% −$1
economics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 168 -9.9% -18.4% 15% 4% -18.3%
≤30d 192 -10.5% -19.0% 23% 5% -18.5%
≤90d 1382 -0.9% -10.4% 81% 28% -9.9%
all 1382 -0.9% -10.4% 81% 28% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 28% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 8% -18.5%
15% -26.8% 3% -26.4%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$19 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$448
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses1126 / 256
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1382 / 1382
History coverage72d ⚠
Avg bet$36
Trades / day31.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1382 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026? Jun 26 $9 −$1 -7%
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK Jun 26 $38 −$2 -4%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe Jun 26 $44 +$4 +8%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b Jun 26 $24 −$5 -22%
Will South Africa be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 26 $74 −$1 -1%
Will Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the Worl Jun 26 $38 −$1 -3%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 26 $12 −$1 -6%
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the seco Jun 26 $3 $0 -3%
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 26 $24 −$2 -10%
Will Egypt be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 26 $13 $0 -2%
Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $12 −$1 -6%
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate a Jun 26 $22 −$2 -7%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in Jun 26 $34 −$2 -6%
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Jun 26 $2 $0 -2%
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative ele Jun 26 $17 −$1 -5%
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027? Jun 26 $11 $0 -1%
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election Jun 26 $18 −$2 -11%
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026? Jun 26 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Uruguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 26 $18 −$2 -13%
Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at leas Jun 26 $14 $0 -2%
Will Denis Bećirović be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and He Jun 26 $20 −$4 -22%
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 26 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Canada be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 26 $11 $0 -3%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? Jun 26 $27 −$1 -5%
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the Jun 26 $26 −$15 -60%
Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 26 $28 −$8 -29%
Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian S Jun 26 $5 $0 -5%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 26 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 26 $16 $0 -2%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting? Jun 26 $16 −$2 -12%
Will A'ja Wilson win the 2026 WNBA MVP award? Jun 26 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 26 $12 −$2 -19%
Will Iran be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 26 $28 −$1 -5%
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Jun 26 $22 −$8 -34%
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 26 $31 −$2 -6%
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 AL West title? Jun 26 $12 −$1 -5%
Will Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 NL East title? Jun 26 $13 −$1 -4%
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 26 $17 −$4 -23%
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Jun 26 $23 $0 -2%
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m? Jun 26 $2 $0 -4%
Will Cristopher Sanchez win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? Jun 26 $4 −$1 -16%
Pepsi (PEP) Q2 organic revenue growth 2.5%-3%? Jun 26 $13 $0 -3%
Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber Jun 26 $15 −$4 -26%
Trump signs housing bill by end of July? Jun 25 $9 −$3 -35%
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 95m and 105m? Jun 25 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Marcye Scott win the 2026 GA-13 special election? Jun 25 $8 $0 -5%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Ju Jun 25 $10 −$1 -9%
World Cup: Scoreless Team? Jun 25 $38 −$2 -4%
Will Luciano Zucco win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? Jun 25 $21 −$1 -5%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Jun 25 $19 −$3 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026? SELL No 25¢ $7 17m
Will there be no next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026? BUY No 26¢ $8 23m
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK SELL No 74¢ $36 32m
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK BUY No 76¢ $38 33m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe SELL Yes 47¢ $5 46m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe SELL No 50¢ $5 47m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe SELL No 45¢ $2 53m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY Yes 42¢ $2 53m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY Yes 42¢ $0 53m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY Yes 42¢ $0 53m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY Yes 42¢ $6 53m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY Yes 42¢ $11 53m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY No 49¢ $17 53m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY No 49¢ $5 54m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY No 49¢ $2 56m
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b SELL No 38¢ $18 1h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY No 47¢ $24 1h
Will South Africa be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 74¢ $12 1h
Will South Africa be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 74¢ $15 1h
Will South Africa be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 74¢ $41 1h
Will South Africa be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 74¢ $6 1h
Will South Africa be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $37 1h
Will South Africa be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $37 1h
Will Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the Worl SELL Yes 75¢ $37 2h
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 23¢ $9 2h
Will Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the Worl BUY Yes 77¢ $38 2h
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 24¢ $2 2h
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 24¢ $2 2h
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 24¢ $10 2h
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the seco SELL No 36¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records