Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:31:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5C 0x5c8f…edca other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$235 (+5%) realized +$235 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate86%6W / 1L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$651per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$142
other 43% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +4.8% -5.2% 86% 29% -5.6%
≤30d 7 +4.8% -5.2% 86% 29% -5.6%
≤90d 7 +4.8% -5.2% 86% 29% -5.6%
all 7 +4.8% -5.2% 86% 29% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 29% -5.6%
10% -14.2% 0% -14.6%
15% -22.5% 0% -22.9%
20% -30.1% 0% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$114 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.74 per $1 lost it wins $2.74
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$235
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses6 / 1
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$651
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $1,208 +$75 +6%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $1,006 +$24 +2%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $501 +$48 +10%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $516 +$32 +6%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $422 +$89 +21%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $502 −$114 -23%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $401 +$43 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 93¢ $663 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $603 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 77¢ $620 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $605 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 89¢ $518 4h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $502 4h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 76¢ $512 4h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $504 4h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 99¢ $550 26h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 90¢ $501 26h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $548 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 94¢ $516 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $512 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $422 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 66¢ $389 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $502 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 100¢ $444 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 90¢ $401 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records