Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:27:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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5C 0x5c8f…d581 sports 575 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 78d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,661 (+17%) realized +$2,379 · open +$282
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate26%148W / 412L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day37.8pace
Fees−$300est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$478now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 78d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$1,037
other 34% +$1,033
crypto 1% −$69
politics 1% −$12
world 0% −$38
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 -18.8% -26.5% 23% 20% -29.4%
≤30d 205 +9.2% -1.2% 28% 26% -11.4%
≤90d 560 -3.4% -12.6% 26% 24% -13.0%
all 560 -3.4% -12.6% 26% 24% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 24% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 22% -21.3%
15% -28.6% 21% -28.9%
20% -35.6% 20% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$19 · ×2.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$478
Realized+$2,379
Unrealized+$282
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses148 / 412
Est. fees paid−$300
Open positions6
Markets (closed)560 / 575
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$28
Trades / day37.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 560 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 20¢ 70¢ $99 $352 +$253 (+254%)
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $44 $88 +$44 (+99%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes $27 $26 −$1 (-5%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Over $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13 $2 −$11 (-83%)
Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be between 90,000 and 100,000 voters? Yes 19¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $45 −$45 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 21 $10 +$37 +372%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $112 −$112 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $197 −$197 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $42 −$42 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $139 +$33 +24%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $26 +$47 +178%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $46 −$46 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $29 +$156 +530%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$2 -63%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $35 +$3 +9%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $30 +$160 +533%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $75 +$44 +59%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 18 $11 −$1 -7%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $12 +$58 +469%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $44 −$28 -64%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $65 −$65 -100%
Spread: Panama (-1.5) Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $12 +$78 +650%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
England vs. Croatia: England 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $51 +$26 +51%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$65 +323%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 27m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 15¢ $30 27m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $6 30m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $28 31m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 31m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $0 31m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $0 31m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $10 31m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 33¢ $34 37m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 39m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 41m
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? SELL No 94¢ $47 1h
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY No 20¢ $2 1h
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY No 20¢ $0 1h
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY No 20¢ $7 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 10¢ $45 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $5 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $1 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes $0 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes $3 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes $2 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over $8 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes $6 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes $4 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 10¢ $10 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 10¢ $10 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes $4 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $477.63 · official $477.88 (match) · 3500 history records