Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:31:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5C 0x5c88…0e4d sports 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,195 (-26%) realized −$2,011 · open −$184
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate30%20W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$82est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$316now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$362
7 days−$1,635
14 days−$2,083
30 days−$2,083
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$1,241
world 21% −$469
crypto 13% −$340
other 10% −$119
politics 2% +$11
finance 2% −$109
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-35.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -24.5% -31.7% 30% 24% -34.8%
≤30d 67 -28.4% -35.2% 30% 25% -33.7%
≤90d 67 -28.4% -35.2% 30% 25% -33.7%
all 67 -28.4% -35.2% 30% 25% -33.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.2% 25% -33.7%
10% -41.4% 24% -40.1%
15% -47.1% 24% -45.9%
20% -52.3% 21% -51.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$80 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$316
Realized−$2,011
Unrealized−$184
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses20 / 47
Est. fees paid−$82
Open positions4
Markets (closed)67 / 71
History coverage11d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $100 $123 +$23 (+23%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $61 −$39 (-39%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 74¢ 12¢ $200 $34 −$166 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 17 $100 −$62 -62%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 17 $220 −$189 -86%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $90 −$88 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3 −$2 -98%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 15 $262 −$39 -15%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $97 −$96 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $200 −$172 -86%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $76 −$4 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $200 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $103 −$28 -27%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 13 $100 −$25 -25%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 13 $92 −$6 -6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $200 −$109 -54%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $112 −$110 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 13 $140 −$21 -15%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $102 +$134 +131%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $231 +$168 +73%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $202 −$200 -99%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $101 +$64 +63%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $204 +$13 +6%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 11 $101 −$2 -2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $202 +$77 +38%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 11 $101 −$6 -6%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $101 +$69 +68%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $358 −$356 -99%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $38 −$4 -12%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $102 +$91 +89%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 11 $204 +$11 +5%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $303 −$299 -99%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 10 $26 +$70 +272%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming (+1.5) Jun 10 $102 +$106 +105%
England vs. Costa Rica: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 10 $101 +$38 +37%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $50 +$38 +77%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $203 +$45 +22%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $201 +$11 +5%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $100 −$18 -18%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 09 $26 −$25 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 09 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 09 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 09 $26 +$63 +240%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $38 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 9¢ $31 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 7¢ $90 39h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 40h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 15¢ $3 41h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 66¢ $220 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 26¢ $223 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $97 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $100 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $28 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $71 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $200 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $76 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $75 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $100 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 30¢ $75 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 41¢ $75 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 30¢ $87 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 33¢ $86 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 35¢ $92 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $91 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $112 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $4 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $119 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $140 3d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 4d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 4d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $100 4d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 31¢ $100 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $316.02 · official $317.15 (match) · 131 history records