Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:12:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c80…3ecb other 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 617d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$32 (-0%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate22%13W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$287per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 78% −$13
politics 14% −$8
other 5% +$25
sports 1% −$37
crypto 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +19.3% +7.9% 20% 20% +3.4%
≤30d 18 +11.9% +1.2% 17% 11% -5.2%
≤90d 45 -6.7% -15.6% 20% 11% -12.4%
all 60 -2.8% -12.0% 22% 10% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 10% -9.7%
10% -20.4% 10% -18.3%
15% -28.1% 10% -26.2%
20% -35.2% 10% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×2.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

617d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses13 / 47
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage617d
Avg bet$287
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $12 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $12 $0 -0%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $9 +$9 +97%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $60 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $11 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? Jun 01 $43 $0 +0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $12 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 24 $14 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 23 $13 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $65 $0 -0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians May 18 $9 +$10 +119%
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros May 12 $11 +$8 +73%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $49 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 06 $51 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 4? May 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $47 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $47 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $51 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $47 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $51 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $50 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $50 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $48 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $48 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $48 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $8 +$4 +55%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Sharks Apr 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Based FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Apr 02 $47 $0 +0%
Magic vs. Hornets Mar 27 $32 −$32 -100%
Spurs vs. Clippers Mar 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Lightning vs. Kraken Mar 19 $24 +$14 +59%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-15? Mar 16 $22 +$33 +150%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 06 $90 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $4 $0 +1%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Feb 13 $90 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 27 $13,537 −$14 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 48m
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 4h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 11h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 3d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 4d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $15 4d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $16 4d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 5d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 5d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 7d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 7d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY New York Yankees 50¢ $9 7d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 9d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $10 9d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $11 10d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $11 11d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $10 11d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $10 11d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 13d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 13d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 13d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 13d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 15d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 15d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $14 22d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 22d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $13 22d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.78 · official $46.78 (match) · 311 history records