Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:48:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5C 0x5c80…9564 other 580 markets active 1h ago coverage 601d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,282 (-6%) realized −$1,248 · open −$34
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate43%247W / 330L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$634now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$109
7 days+$52
14 days+$104
30 days+$149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$705
sports 32% −$631
politics 10% +$283
world 3% −$183
tech 3% −$104
crypto 0% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +15.3% +4.3% 60% 56% -5.2%
≤30d 40 +12.7% +1.9% 52% 50% -1.7%
≤90d 126 -2.1% -11.4% 53% 45% -7.3%
all 577 -7.4% -16.2% 43% 38% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 38% -15.3%
10% -24.2% 33% -23.4%
15% -31.5% 27% -30.8%
20% -38.3% 21% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$23 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

601d coverage
Net worth$634
Realized−$1,248
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses247 / 330
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions3
Markets (closed)577 / 580
History coverage601d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 577 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 66¢ $591 $559 −$32 (-5%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $41 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $36 $34 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 139 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $29 +$11 +40%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $32 +$20 +64%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $46 +$72 +156%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $21 −$5 -22%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $43 +$69 +162%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $55 −$14 -25%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $46 −$46 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $55 −$54 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $38 −$10 -27%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 $0 +2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $39 +$7 +19%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $61 +$29 +47%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $76 +$16 +21%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $60 +$23 +38%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $132 −$38 -29%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $20 +$10 +50%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $45 +$43 +95%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 $0 -13%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $48 −$35 -73%
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$22 +112%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $53 +$15 +29%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $24 +$10 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Jun 11 $51 +$9 +18%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $91 −$74 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $38 −$15 -38%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 06 $74 +$46 +62%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $56 −$6 -12%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 Jun 04 $69 +$29 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $33 +$181 +551%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $9 +$3 +35%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) May 24 $70 −$69 -99%
Set Handicap: Fils (-1.5) vs Wawrinka (+1.5) May 24 $18 −$6 -34%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5 May 23 $32 −$32 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 207.5 May 23 $61 +$19 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $21 −$10 -51%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 May 22 $63 +$21 +33%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) May 20 $90 −$49 -55%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 03 $17 −$17 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 206.5 May 02 $22 +$17 +79%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $36 −$16 -44%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 29 $52 +$20 +37%
Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 213.5 Apr 28 $38 +$29 +75%
Spread: Rockets (-5.5) Apr 27 $54 −$17 -31%
Madrid Open: Jessica Pegula vs Marta Kostyuk Apr 25 $28 −$28 -99%
Madrid Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Fabian Marozsan Apr 25 $19 +$7 +35%
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 216.5 Apr 25 $26 +$23 +89%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $20 −$12 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $37 7h
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 7h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $29 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $32 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 62¢ $20 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $32 17h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $119 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $46 20h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 33¢ $16 21h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $21 25h
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $37 26h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $112 39h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $5 40h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $38 40h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 35¢ $41 41h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $55 44h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $46 47h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 36¢ $55 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 47¢ $28 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $38 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 59¢ $21 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $21 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 80¢ $15 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 76¢ $30 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $54 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 SELL Over 66¢ $36 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $45 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $11 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 57¢ $6 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $634.01 · official $634.01 (match) · 1588 history records