Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:26:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c80…2596 other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate50%20W / 20L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% $0
other 26% +$6
sports 5% $0
politics 4% −$2
crypto 3% −$1
weather 3% +$8
economics 3% $0
culture 1% −$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.7% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 8 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 8 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
all 40 -6.5% -15.4% 50% 8% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 8% -8.6%
10% -23.5% 5% -17.4%
15% -30.9% 5% -25.3%
20% -37.7% 2% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses20 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage485d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 88¢ 89¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $46 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $83 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $79 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 06 $15 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $79 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $66 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $43 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 29 $5 $0 +3%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 27 $2 −$1 -60%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 26 $8 $0 -2%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 17 $22 $0 -1%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 04 $5 $0 -7%
Ethereum above $2,700 on June 3? Jun 03 $12 −$1 -10%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Alessandro Bastoni be named the Champions League Final man of the Jun 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 01 $16 −$3 -16%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe May 30 $16 $0 +1%
Will Jalen Brunson Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 29 $18 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 29 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 28 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 18 $22 +$2 +8%
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $1 $0 +16%
TikTok sale announced before April? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Giants draft Travis Hunter? Mar 31 $17 +$6 +37%
March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? Mar 31 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum above $2,000 on March 28? Mar 29 $17 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $18 +$1 +5%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 21-28? Mar 26 $17 $0 +1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 26 $1 $0 -16%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 22 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 46-47°F on March 20? Mar 21 $17 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on February Mar 20 $10 +$8 +75%
Will Alabama win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Feb 27 $10 $0 +2%
Arkansas vs. Auburn Feb 18 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $39 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $34 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $35 6h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $39 11h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $5 13h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $35 13h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $25 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $18 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $43 10d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 42¢ $6 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $7 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $40 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $16 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $24 12d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $15 12d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $40 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $18 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $21 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $5 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $35 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $40 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $40 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $40 13d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $39 15d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $39 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $24 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $15 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $31 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $9 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.07 · official $39.07 (match) · 129 history records