Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:36:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c7a…b79d crypto 130 markets active 4d ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$20 (-10%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate68%88W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$7
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$20
sports 10% −$3
other 5% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -43.6% -49.0% 45% 18% -46.6%
≤30d 102 -11.7% -20.2% 69% 53% -18.7%
≤90d 130 -11.1% -19.6% 68% 51% -19.9%
all 130 -11.1% -19.6% 68% 51% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 51% -19.9%
10% -27.3% 25% -27.6%
15% -34.3% 12% -34.6%
20% -40.7% 8% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses88 / 42
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)130 / 130
History coverage29d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 130 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +24%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +4%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1 +$1 +114%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 08 $6 $0 +2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 26 $2 −$1 -40%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 26 $1 $0 +29%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 26 $1 $0 +13%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $1 +$1 +83%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 22 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 22 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 22 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 22 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 22 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 22 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 22 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 22 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 22 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 22 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 22 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 22 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 22 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 22 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 22 $1 $0 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $1 6d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 98¢ $6 9d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 290 history records