Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
5C 0x5c76…2b9c weather 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$88 (+23%) realized +$81 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +90% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +58% what you keep after slip
Net edge+58%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate62%20W / 12L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days+$70
14 days+$70
30 days+$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$77
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+71.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +89.5% +71.5% 62% 59% +20.5%
≤30d 32 +89.5% +71.5% 62% 59% +20.5%
≤90d 32 +89.5% +71.5% 62% 59% +20.5%
all 32 +89.5% +71.5% 62% 59% +20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +71.5% 59% +20.5%
10% +55.0% 50% +9.0%
15% +40.1% 50% -1.6%
20% +26.3% 38% -11.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +89% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late +150% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.03 per $1 lost it wins $2.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized+$81
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses20 / 12
Open positions7
Markets (closed)32 / 39
History coverage7d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Yes 87¢ 97¢ $70 $78 +$8 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Yes 86¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-34%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 18? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -66%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $62 −$47 -76%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $46 +$85 +186%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$3 -48%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $27 +$25 +94%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$2 -19%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 +$4 +233%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +1567%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +149%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 +$5 +41%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 +$3 +42%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -8%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 +37%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +122%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +149%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -60%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 +200%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +18%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 12 $0 $0 +109%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +344%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$3 +213%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +47%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 87¢ $70 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? SELL Yes 97¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? SELL Yes 97¢ $79 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 86¢ $80 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? SELL Yes 16¢ $15 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 61¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 61¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 61¢ $11 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? SELL Yes 33¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 26h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 27h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 27h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 27h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 27h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 28h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 28h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 31h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 31h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.86 · official $96.86 (match) · 107 history records