Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:34:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c74…cfb6 sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$23 (-24%) realized −$25 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate53%9W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% −$3
other 31% −$18
crypto 28% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -19.0% -26.7% 53% 41% -39.9%
≤30d 17 -19.0% -26.7% 53% 41% -39.9%
≤90d 17 -19.0% -26.7% 53% 41% -39.9%
all 17 -19.0% -26.7% 53% 41% -39.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.7% 41% -39.9%
10% -33.7% 29% -45.6%
15% -40.1% 24% -50.9%
20% -46.0% 12% -55.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses9 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)17 / 23
History coverage3d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 58¢ 57¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 60¢ 97¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+62%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 82¢ 86¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 61¢ 55¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Minnesota Twins 45¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Athletics 57¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $1 +$1 +109%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 +$2 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +14%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $3 +$3 +86%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $4 $0 +6%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $3 −$2 -71%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 57¢ $1 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 61¢ $2 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 58¢ $5 9h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $1 11h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 58¢ $2 11h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 45¢ $1 11h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $3 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 18h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 100¢ $6 19h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 83¢ $4 19h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 78¢ $4 19h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 57¢ $9 19h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Chicago Cubs 20¢ $1 20h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 58¢ $6 21h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 24h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 60¢ $3 25h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 67¢ $3 25h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 53¢ $3 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.73 · official $18.73 (match) · 44 history records