Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:42:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5C 0x5c73…8b51 crypto 48 markets active 3d ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$12 (+5%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate42%20W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$21
weather 14% +$30
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +15.0% +4.1% 43% 30% -21.2%
≤30d 47 +15.0% +4.1% 43% 30% -21.2%
≤90d 48 +12.6% +1.9% 42% 29% -21.5%
all 48 +12.6% +1.9% 42% 29% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.9% 29% -21.5%
10% -7.8% 27% -29.0%
15% -16.8% 23% -35.9%
20% -24.9% 17% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses20 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage75d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 +$60 +5712%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 88°F or higher on Jun Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June Jun 12 $8 −$7 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on June Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$9 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 10 $8 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 10 $29 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 10 $8 −$4 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $8 +$3 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$8 +252%
Clippers vs. Bucks Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju SELL Yes 100¢ $1 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL No 22¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju SELL Yes 91¢ $60 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 60¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 88°F or higher on Jun BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 18¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June BUY Yes 1¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on June BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June BUY Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 19¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 124 history records