Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:10:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
5C 0x5c73…20ac crypto 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$195 (+21%) realized +$195 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$195
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +34.8% +21.9% 38% 38% +9.2%
≤30d 8 +34.8% +21.9% 38% 38% +9.2%
≤90d 8 +34.8% +21.9% 38% 38% +9.2%
all 8 +34.8% +21.9% 38% 38% +9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.9% 38% +9.2%
10% +10.3% 38% -1.2%
15% -0.4% 38% -10.8%
20% -10.1% 38% -19.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$265 vs −$120 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$195
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $104 +$143 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 18 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $208 −$208 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$95 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 18 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $106 +$454 +430%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 18 $107 −$92 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $105 +$198 +190%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 24 history records