Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:23:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c70…b626 crypto 45 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$46 (-33%) realized −$45 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%21W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$27
other 19% +$3
politics 17% −$13
sports 14% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-30.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -23.5% -30.8% 50% 50% -42.4%
≤30d 42 -23.5% -30.8% 50% 50% -42.4%
≤90d 42 -23.5% -30.8% 50% 50% -42.4%
all 42 -23.5% -30.8% 50% 50% -42.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.8% 50% -42.4%
10% -37.4% 36% -47.9%
15% -43.5% 19% -52.9%
20% -49.0% 14% -57.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$45
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses21 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)42 / 45
History coverage5d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Down 68¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Up 63¢ 26¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-60%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Up 78¢ 30¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$5 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 $0 -8%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12 +$4 +32%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $24 −$13 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 0m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 1m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 10m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 11m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 22m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 36m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 36m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 49m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 52m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $8 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.88 · official $1.78 (match) · 74 history records