Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:53:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c6e…0617 world 179 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 134d only
! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,352 (-2%) realized −$4,339 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate54%93W / 79L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,504per market
Trades / day24.5pace
Fees−$407est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$2,083now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,346
7 days−$1,872
14 days−$1,419
30 days+$197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$3,112
finance 26% −$8,453
sports 8% −$844
other 5% +$1,305
politics 1% +$1,360
economics 1% +$1,559
crypto 1% +$941
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -8.9% -17.6% 44% 44% -18.8%
≤30d 30 -8.8% -17.5% 53% 43% -7.8%
≤90d 123 +12.5% +1.8% 51% 41% -11.1%
all 172 +23.5% +11.7% 54% 44% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.7% 44% -9.8%
10% +1.0% 31% -18.5%
15% ← realistic here -8.7% 23% -26.3%
20% -17.7% 16% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$1,416) neutral
Persistence
early +31% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
11.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$368 vs −$447 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$2,083
Realized−$4,339
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses93 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$407
Open positions7
Markets (closed)172 / 179
History coverage135d ⚠
Avg bet$1,504
Trades / day24.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 32¢ 32¢ $864 $885 +$21 (+2%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 65¢ 69¢ $647 $691 +$44 (+7%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 65¢ 70¢ $393 $426 +$33 (+8%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 8¢ $191 $79 −$112 (-59%)
Will s1mple retire by June 30? No 15¢ 97¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+548%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 60¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+59%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 18¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $3,217 −$1,346 -42%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 16 $1,917 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1,560 +$185 +12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 15 $757 −$691 -91%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $1,242 −$1,242 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $165 +$320 +194%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 12 $986 −$901 -91%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1,348 +$259 +19%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $5,548 +$1,544 +28%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $524 +$180 +34%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $650 +$267 +41%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $604 +$6 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1,125 +$967 +86%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $1,175 +$417 +36%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $143 +$137 +96%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $227 +$122 +54%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 29 $1,819 +$65 +4%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? May 29 $225 −$183 -82%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? May 29 $318 −$189 -60%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 28 $11,392 +$1,292 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 27 $1,580 +$40 +2%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 26 $390 −$263 -67%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 24 $407 −$172 -42%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $56 −$56 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $216 −$48 -22%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 22 $2,131 −$278 -13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 21 $433 −$32 -7%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 20 $266 −$266 -100%
Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22? May 20 $146 +$44 +30%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? May 20 $25 +$18 +74%
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 19 $146 −$146 -100%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22? May 18 $109 −$94 -86%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 18 $1,386 −$5 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 18 $622 +$197 +32%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 18 $2,885 −$838 -29%
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? May 16 $208 −$206 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 16 $2,084 +$139 +7%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $365 +$81 +22%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $161 +$353 +219%
Major US official out by May 31? May 14 $317 +$400 +126%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 13 $454 −$2 -0%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 12 $58 +$26 +44%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 11 $1,882 +$25 +1%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $171 −$104 -61%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 09 $150 −$83 -55%
Kash Patel out by December 31? May 08 $671 +$3 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 05 $630 −$630 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 05 $994 −$264 -27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 04 $82 −$48 -59%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 03 $57 +$12 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $864 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $647 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 64¢ $340 8h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 38¢ $174 8h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 64¢ $6 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 64¢ $97 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $154 13h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $83 13h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $7 13h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $0 13h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 88¢ $5 19h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 88¢ $140 19h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 88¢ $130 19h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 88¢ $145 19h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 88¢ $140 19h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 88¢ $174 19h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 88¢ $181 19h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 88¢ $152 19h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 88¢ $150 19h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 88¢ $1 20h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 88¢ $1 20h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 88¢ $8 20h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $32 20h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $0 20h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $210 20h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 88¢ $40 20h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 88¢ $49 21h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $9 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $87 24h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 18¢ $0 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,082.91 · official $2,083.01 (match) · 3500 history records