Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:42:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5C 0x5c6d…d67b crypto 294 markets active 2h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$375 (-4%) realized −$373 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate71%206W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$478now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$99
7 days+$162
14 days−$250
30 days−$250
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$211
sports 23% −$375
other 16% +$123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -8.6% -17.3% 62% 62% +2.9%
≤30d 17 -12.3% -20.6% 65% 53% -17.0%
≤90d 289 -0.4% -9.9% 71% 63% -14.4%
all 289 -0.4% -9.9% 71% 63% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 63% -14.4%
10% -18.5% 46% -22.6%
15% -26.4% 34% -30.1%
20% -33.6% 20% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$27 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$478
Realized−$373
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses206 / 83
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions5
Markets (closed)289 / 294
History coverage67d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 289 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $250 $248 −$2 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 +$28 +55%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $502 +$66 +13%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh Jun 20 $100 +$19 +18%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $303 +$151 +50%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 −$56 -55%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $453 +$139 +31%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 15 $250 +$16 +6%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $558 −$550 -99%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $100 +$17 +17%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $144 +$11 +7%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $101 +$23 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $46 −$45 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $101 +$77 +76%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Solana Up or Down - May 7, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 07 $42 −$40 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 07 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 07 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 07 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET May 07 $42 −$40 -96%
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 06 $42 −$40 -96%
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 06 $100 −$100 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 06 $100 +$3 +3%
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 06 $75 −$74 -99%
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 06 $81 +$15 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 06 $81 +$17 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 06 $81 +$10 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 06 $41 +$22 +55%
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 06 $20 +$4 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 06 $9 −$9 -95%
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 06 $34 −$34 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 06 $40 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 05 $40 +$4 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 05 $34 +$6 +18%
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 05 $40 +$7 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 05 $51 +$18 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 05 $40 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 05 $41 +$9 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 05 $101 +$13 +13%
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 05 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 05 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 05 $102 −$100 -98%
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 05 $60 +$5 +9%
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 05 $41 +$40 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8AM ET May 05 $40 +$7 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $252 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 88¢ $502 23h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 24h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 24h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $51 24h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 4d
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Bia Mesquita 84¢ $100 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $454 4d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $46 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 66¢ $303 4d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 4d
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 74¢ $252 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 55¢ $253 9d
O/U 0.5 Rounds BUY Over 94¢ $250 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $46 9d
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 9d
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY No 93¢ $144 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $304 9d
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 79¢ $201 10d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $101 10d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 56¢ $101 10d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $11 41d
Solana Up or Down - May 7, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $51 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $42 47d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $478.23 · official $478.23 (match) · 585 history records