Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:41:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c6d…bc29 other 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 732d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$36 (-1%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%52W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$4
politics 30% −$47
crypto 15% +$6
tech 5% $0
world 3% +$1
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 55 -2.6% -11.9% 95% 0% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 0% -10.8%
10% -20.3% 0% -19.3%
15% -28.0% 0% -27.1%
20% -35.1% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$29 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

732d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses52 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage732d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $67 $67 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of May 18 above $7.50? Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 Jun 17 $66 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 20 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on March 20? Apr 13 $75 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will Apple dip to $208 in February? Mar 10 $54 $0 +0%
Will Opinion launch a token by December 31, 2026? Mar 10 $78 $0 +0%
Will Artemis II launch by February 7? Feb 09 $56 $0 +0%
Ostrava Open: Katie Boulter vs Viktorija Golubic Feb 05 $80 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 05 $25 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 01 $25 $0 +1%
Will no leader be out in 2025? Oct 26 $44 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Oct 08 $24 $0 +1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? Aug 01 $25 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 500 or more times June 6–13? Jun 14 $35 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 6? May 07 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 11–18? Apr 22 $114 $0 +0%
Ripple above $2.45 on March 14? Mar 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 28 - March 7? Mar 06 $14 +$1 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 01 $21 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk tweet less than 300 times February 7-14? Feb 15 $21 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 550 or more times Jan 17-24? Jan 25 $12 $0 +4%
Will Elon tweet 800 or more times Jan 10-17? Jan 18 $86 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 3-Jan 10? Jan 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Base airdrop in 2024? Jan 04 $27 $0 +1%
Will FTX payouts start in Q4 2024? Jan 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $300 in December? Jan 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $60,000 in November? Dec 01 $87 $0 +0%
Will Trump tweet 40-49 times Nov 15-22? Nov 24 $87 $0 +0%
Will Trump tweet 30-39 times Nov 8-15? Nov 18 $86 +$1 +1%
Will Elon tweet 200-224 times November 8-15? Nov 15 $86 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times November 8-15? Nov 13 $26 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 09 $35 $0 +1%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $22 $0 +0%
Trump in jail before election day? Nov 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump drop out of presidential race? Nov 06 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Elon tweet 150-174 times October 18-25? Oct 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 175-199 times? Oct 05 $42 $0 +0%
Farcaster airdrop by September 30? Oct 02 $21 $0 +0%
MetaMask airdrop by September 30? Oct 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times? Sep 24 $61 $0 +0%
Trump posts 5-9 times on X? Sep 14 $61 $0 +0%
Trump posts between 10 and 14 times on X? Sep 01 $61 $0 +0%
Trump posts 50-99 times on X? Aug 26 $61 $0 +0%
Will Trump tweet 8 times this week? Aug 22 $61 $0 +0%
Will Trump post 50 or more times this week? Aug 18 $61 $0 +0%
USA wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? Aug 12 $21 $0 +0%
Will Biden drop out on July 21? Aug 01 $56 −$56 -100%
Iran Nuke by July 31? Aug 01 $40 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jul 10 $50 +$3 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $67 1h
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of May 18 above $7.50? BUY No 100¢ $33 28d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $66 42d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 60d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on March 20? BUY No 100¢ $48 89d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on March 20? BUY No 100¢ $3 89d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on March 20? BUY No 100¢ $5 89d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on March 20? BUY No 100¢ $19 89d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 99d
Will Apple dip to $208 in February? BUY No 100¢ $54 111d
Will Opinion launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $78 133d
Will Artemis II launch by February 7? BUY No 100¢ $56 133d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $25 172d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? BUY No 99¢ $25 216d
Will no leader be out in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $44 240d
Xi Jinping out before October? BUY No 99¢ $24 285d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? BUY No 98¢ $25 325d
Will Elon tweet 500 or more times June 6–13? BUY No 100¢ $35 370d
Ethereum Up or Down on May 6? BUY Down 96¢ $14 406d
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 11–18? BUY No 100¢ $114 429d
Ripple above $2.45 on March 14? BUY No 100¢ $12 460d
Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 28 - March 7? SELL No 97¢ $15 468d
Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 28 - March 7? BUY No 90¢ $14 473d
Will Elon Musk tweet less than 300 times February 7-14? BUY No 99¢ $21 494d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by February 28, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $21 500d
Will Elon tweet 550 or more times Jan 17-24? BUY No 97¢ $12 512d
Will Elon tweet 800 or more times Jan 10-17? BUY No 100¢ $86 516d
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 3-Jan 10? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 526d
Will Solana hit $300 in December? BUY No 100¢ $30 536d
Will FTX payouts start in Q4 2024? BUY No 100¢ $30 545d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.90 · official $66.90 (match) · 120 history records