Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:46:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5C 0x5c64…75af sports 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$186 (+13%) realized +$222 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%32W / 32L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$156
14 days+$176
30 days+$176
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$209
other 37% −$132
world 6% $0
crypto 0% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+32.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +38.7% +25.5% 48% 47% +3.5%
≤30d 64 +46.1% +32.2% 50% 48% +4.8%
≤90d 64 +46.1% +32.2% 50% 48% +4.8%
all 64 +46.1% +32.2% 50% 48% +4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +32.2% 48% +4.8%
10% +19.5% 48% -5.3%
15% +8.0% 48% -14.4%
20% -2.6% 45% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +62% → late +30% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$17 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$132
Realized+$222
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses32 / 32
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions5
Markets (closed)64 / 78
History coverage7d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $69 $68 −$1 (-2%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 55¢ $45 $48 +$3 (+7%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 19¢ 20¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+5%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Yes 43¢ 4¢ $25 $2 −$23 (-91%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 24¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $22 +$123 +547%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $15 +$15 +101%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First H Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $12 +$17 +139%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $15 +$9 +57%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $13 +$12 +89%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $96 −$95 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$11 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $66 −$65 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $12 −$12 -99%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$12 +119%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 +$13 +86%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 +$12 +226%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $35 +$20 +57%
Saša Kalajdžić: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ assists Jun 17 $8 +$13 +165%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$20 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $3 +$12 +388%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 +$17 +165%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$17 +83%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $7 +$15 +216%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $25 +$26 +101%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $79 $0 -0%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 15 $8 +$2 +24%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$1 -6%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $12 +$12 +101%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $25 +$21 +83%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $5 +$63 +1222%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$18 +173%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $25 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $20 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $7 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $36 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 95¢ $145 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $40 19h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 19h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 19h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 20¢ $6 19h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10 19h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First H BUY Yes 17¢ $2 20h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $12 20h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $3 20h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $15 20h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $29 20h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $24 20h
Colombia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 20h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $81 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $66 29h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $15 33h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $13 33h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $12 33h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $7 33h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $15 33h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.72 · official $132.59 (match) · 132 history records