Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:07:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5C 0x5c5f…5449 sports 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$126 (-10%) realized −$218 · open +$92
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate45%19W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$292now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$167
7 days−$174
14 days−$174
30 days−$177
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$56
other 40% +$1
crypto 2% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-34.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -24.3% -31.5% 46% 44% -25.5%
≤30d 42 -27.3% -34.2% 45% 40% -25.7%
≤90d 42 -27.3% -34.2% 45% 40% -25.7%
all 42 -27.3% -34.2% 45% 40% -25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.2% 40% -25.7%
10% -40.5% 36% -32.8%
15% -46.2% 29% -39.3%
20% -51.5% 21% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$19 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$292
Realized−$218
Unrealized+$92
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses19 / 23
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions7
Markets (closed)42 / 49
History coverage28d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Cincinnati Reds 35¢ 99¢ $53 $150 +$97 (+184%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Tunisia 65¢ 60¢ $48 $44 −$4 (-7%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? No 96¢ 95¢ $34 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? No 94¢ 94¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 54¢ 52¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-5%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 60¢ 52¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-12%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$94 +94%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $107 −$85 -80%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $44 +$6 +13%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $13 +$9 +64%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$7 +23%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $32 −$30 -92%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $111 −$93 -84%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $76 +$19 +25%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $19 +$21 +114%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $24 +$13 +51%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 20 $19 +$16 +86%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $23 +$1 +4%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 +$5 +101%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $28 +$12 +44%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $26 −$10 -41%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$4 -42%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $21 +$19 +87%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $6 +$3 +44%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $13 +$8 +58%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $16 +$4 +26%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $14 +$15 +105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $36 +$4 +13%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $5 +$2 +39%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals May 23 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $22 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 100¢ $36 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $13 3h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 35¢ $49 4h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 35¢ $5 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 42¢ $2 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $22 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $10 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 80¢ $5 4h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 64¢ $26 5h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 81¢ $15 7h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 81¢ $4 7h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 81¢ $5 7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 54¢ $4 11h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 96¢ $27 13h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 67¢ $4 13h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 67¢ $4 14h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $27 14h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $27 14h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL San Francisco Giants 49¢ $12 14h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 94¢ $22 14h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 57¢ $14 14h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 93¢ $20 14h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 57¢ $14 14h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 93¢ $20 14h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL No 76¢ $21 14h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Tunisia 66¢ $13 14h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $22 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $291.68 · official $291.38 (match) · 158 history records