Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:36:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
5C 0x5c5d…8e0f crypto 201 markets active 2h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$230 (-23%) realized −$224 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%105W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$73
tech 10% −$100
other 10% −$6
sports 6% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 200 -10.7% -19.2% 52% 52% -32.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 52% -32.7%
10% -26.9% 50% -39.1%
15% -34.0% 46% -45.0%
20% -40.5% 38% -50.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized−$224
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses105 / 95
Open positions1
Markets (closed)200 / 201
History coverage167d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 200 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 61¢ 57¢ $97 $92 −$6 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd Mar 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jan 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jan 28 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jan 28 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jan 28 $4 −$4 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jan 28 $4 +$2 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jan 28 $4 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jan 28 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jan 28 $4 −$4 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jan 28 $4 −$4 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jan 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jan 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jan 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jan 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jan 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jan 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jan 26 $3 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jan 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jan 26 $3 +$4 +138%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jan 26 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jan 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jan 26 $3 +$3 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jan 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jan 26 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jan 26 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jan 26 $3 +$3 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jan 25 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jan 25 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jan 25 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jan 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jan 25 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jan 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jan 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jan 25 $2 +$4 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jan 25 $3 +$2 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 25, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jan 25 $3 +$2 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 25, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jan 25 $3 +$3 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jan 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jan 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 25, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jan 25 $3 +$6 +199%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 25, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jan 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 25, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jan 25 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jan 25 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jan 25 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jan 24 $3 +$2 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 24, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jan 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jan 24 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jan 24 $3 +$2 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $98 1h
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi BUY Yes 42¢ $102 37d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd BUY TheMongolz 51¢ $20 85d
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 4¢ $40 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 143d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 143d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 143d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $4 143d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 143d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 143d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 143d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 143d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 143d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 143d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $0 143d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 143d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 143d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 144d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 144d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 145d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 145d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $0 145d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 145d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 145d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 145d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 145d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 145d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 145d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $0 145d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 145d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.58 · official $91.58 (match) · 384 history records