Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:05:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5C
0x5c5b…1a6d
world · 133 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
+$3,220 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,039 · open +$756
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5,973
Realized+$2,039
Unrealized+$756
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses74 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions23
Markets (closed)110 / 133
History coverage105d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 23 History 110 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$313
14 days+$317
30 days+$255
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 55¢ 82¢ $865 $1,290 +$425 (+49%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 55¢ 62¢ $534 $605 +$71 (+13%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 98¢ $531 $560 +$30 (+6%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $538 $542 +$4 (+1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 77¢ 94¢ $407 $492 +$84 (+21%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 85¢ 96¢ $307 $346 +$40 (+13%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 92¢ 97¢ $323 $340 +$17 (+5%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $309 $315 +$6 (+2%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? No 78¢ 84¢ $252 $271 +$19 (+8%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 67¢ 74¢ $219 $242 +$23 (+10%)
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay No 82¢ 84¢ $234 $240 +$6 (+3%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 90¢ 97¢ $158 $170 +$13 (+8%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 81¢ 80¢ $160 $158 −$2 (-1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 79¢ 82¢ $118 $123 +$4 (+4%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 70¢ 70¢ $101 $102 +$1 (+1%)
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 44¢ 70¢ $24 $39 +$15 (+60%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 46¢ 42¢ $35 $32 −$3 (-8%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 97¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+3%)
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 49¢ 54¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+10%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 46¢ 97¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+110%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 11¢ 56¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+409%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 41¢ 0¢ $194 $0 −$194 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $119 +$19 +16%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $141 +$19 +13%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $58 −$23 -39%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $118 −$67 -57%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $194 −$194 -100%
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by May 31? Jun 06 $16 +$2 +13%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 06 $33 +$8 +23%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $183 +$28 +16%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $332 +$44 +13%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 06 $1,204 +$108 +9%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 06 $499 +$57 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $731 +$245 +34%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 06 $455 +$68 +15%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? May 31 $128 +$4 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $214 +$17 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $278 −$34 -12%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? May 29 $95 −$90 -94%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 28 $153 +$5 +4%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 26 $10 +$3 +26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $160 −$73 -46%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? May 25 $70 −$21 -30%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 23 $224 −$90 -40%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $202 +$5 +2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 23 $128 +$20 +16%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 23 $13 +$1 +9%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $423 +$49 +12%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? May 20 $180 −$3 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 17 $222 +$51 +23%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 17 $212 +$97 +46%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 11 $792 −$521 -66%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 11 $166 −$2 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 09 $813 +$335 +41%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 08 $211 +$49 +23%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 07 $38 −$8 -20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 07 $33 −$8 -24%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 07 $248 +$28 +11%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 04 $399 −$15 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 04 $34 +$8 +23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $115 +$5 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 01 $31 +$9 +30%
Will Russia capture Bilytske by April 30, 2026? May 01 $68 +$32 +46%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? May 01 $466 +$87 +19%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 01 $319 +$23 +7%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? May 01 $298 +$110 +37%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 27 $371 +$243 +66%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 25 $49 +$34 +70%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 25 $33 +$28 +83%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 24 $136 +$62 +46%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? Apr 23 $8 +$4 +49%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $156 +$221 +142%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 96% +$2,595
finance 2% +$112
other 2% +$87
sports 0% −$2
politics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $1 1h
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $0 1h
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December SELL No 90¢ $0 3h
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December SELL No 90¢ $0 8h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $7 9h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $7 9h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $8 10h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $0 10h
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $0 10h
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $7 10h
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $104 10h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $21 11h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $9 13h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $9 13h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $122 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $13 2d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $28 3d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $41 3d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $1 3d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $37 3d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $31 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $101 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $40 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $18 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 44¢ $1 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 43¢ $1 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 44¢ $0 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 45¢ $0 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 45¢ $0 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 45¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -7.3% -16.1% 77% 69% -2.2%
≤30d 29 -7.7% -16.5% 69% 48% -5.3%
≤90d 100 +11.1% +0.5% 68% 52% -2.0%
all 110 +12.1% +1.4% 67% 51% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.4% 51% -1.2%
10% -8.3% 32% -10.7%
15% -17.1% 22% -19.3%
20% -25.3% 14% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,973.30 · official $5,972.88 (match) · 1777 history records