Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:56:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c59…7052 sports 978 markets active 6d ago coverage 76d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 76d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$85 (+1%) realized +$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%542W / 436L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day31.6pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$47
crypto 22% −$52
weather 1% −$10
other 1% +$11
world 0% −$1
politics 0% −$9
culture 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -15.7% -23.8% 31% 31% -29.3%
≤30d 40 -24.2% -31.4% 28% 28% -37.1%
≤90d 978 -1.4% -10.8% 55% 45% -9.6%
all 978 -1.4% -10.8% 55% 45% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 45% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 35% -18.3%
15% -27.1% 30% -26.2%
20% -34.3% 23% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses542 / 436
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions0
Markets (closed)978 / 978
History coverage76d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day31.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 978 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$3 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$3 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$4 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 1.5 May 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 2.5 May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 1.5 May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
AA Ponte Preta vs. Londrina EC: O/U 4.5 May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
FC Petrolul Ploieşti vs. ASC Oțelul Galați: O/U 2.5 May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
FCV Farul Constanţa vs. FC Metaloglobus București: O/U 1.5 May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Kahrabaa Ismailia FC vs. Haras El Hodood SC: O/U 1.5 May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Kerala Blasters FC vs. FC Goa: O/U 2.5 May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Inter Miami CF vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 1.5 May 18 $3 $0 +11%
OGC Nice vs. FC Metz: O/U 1.5 May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Kasımpaşa SK vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 1.5 May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Olympique Lyonnais vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 1.5 May 17 $3 +$1 +18%
Newcastle United FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 1.5 May 17 $3 +$1 +18%
Hannover 96 vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 1.5 May 17 $3 +$1 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3424 history records