Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:23:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c57…93a8 other 126 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,743 (-6%) realized −$1,662 · open −$81
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate95%118W / 6L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$238per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$488now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$228
7 days+$256
14 days+$424
30 days−$1,757
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$709
finance 10% −$2,481
culture 9% +$26
politics 5% −$135
tech 3% +$28
sports 3% +$10
crypto 2% +$4
weather 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +17.0% +5.9% 100% 42% +0.1%
≤30d 124 +4.2% -5.7% 95% 21% -14.9%
≤90d 124 +4.2% -5.7% 95% 21% -14.9%
all 124 +4.2% -5.7% 95% 21% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 21% -14.9%
10% -14.7% 11% -23.1%
15% -23.0% 6% -30.5%
20% -30.5% 1% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$470 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$488
Realized−$1,662
Unrealized−$81
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses118 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)124 / 126
History coverage28d
Avg bet$238
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2? Yes 94¢ 80¢ $487 $419 −$68 (-14%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2? No 95¢ 80¢ $82 $69 −$13 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will anyone say "Existence" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $38 +$14 +36%
Will anyone say "Space" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $65 +$21 +33%
Will anyone say "Dimensional" or "Interdimensional" during Rick and Mo Jun 15 $44 +$16 +36%
Will anyone say "Robot" or "Bot" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $36 +$17 +47%
Will anyone say "Summer" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $47 +$15 +32%
Will anyone say "Suck" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $36 +$13 +37%
Will anyone say "Jerry" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $52 +$10 +20%
Will anyone say "Fish" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $87 +$32 +37%
Will anyone say "Morty" 10+ times during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +16%
Will anyone say "Password" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $18 +$4 +24%
Will MrBeast say "Jet" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $212 +$58 +27%
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his n Jun 13 $112 +$18 +16%
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $3 +$5 +157%
Will MrBeast say "Lamborghini" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $16 +$4 +26%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 10? Jun 11 $251 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 10? Jun 11 $83 $0 +0%
Will Oracle say "Tariff" during earnings call? Jun 11 $2 $0 +5%
Will Oracle say "Open Source" during earnings call? Jun 11 $24 +$1 +5%
Will Oracle say "Bubble" during earnings call? Jun 11 $24 +$1 +5%
Will Oracle say "Temu" during earnings call? Jun 11 $156 +$2 +1%
Will Oracle say "Debt" during earnings call? Jun 11 $129 +$1 +1%
Will "David" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $101 $0 +0%
Will "GOAT" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will "The Crash" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $174 $0 +0%
Will "The Witness" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $327 +$9 +3%
Will Tim Cook say "Privilege" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June Jun 09 $58 +$1 +2%
Will Tim Cook say "Cheaper" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8 Jun 09 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Tim Cook say "M5" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8th? Jun 09 $9 +$1 +13%
Will Tim Cook say "Amazing" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8 Jun 09 $63 +$2 +3%
Will John Ternus say "Siri" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8 Jun 09 $25 +$1 +5%
Will John Ternus say "Update" or "Updated" during the Apple WWDC 2026 Jun 09 $34 +$1 +4%
Will John Ternus say "Powerful" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on Ju Jun 09 $34 +$1 +4%
Will John Ternus say "Personal" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on Ju Jun 09 $19 +$1 +5%
Will John Ternus say "Privilege" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on J Jun 09 $24 +$1 +5%
Will John Ternus say "Developer" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on J Jun 09 $19 +$1 +5%
Will anyone say "Evil" during Rick and Morty E3 S9? Jun 08 $33 +$2 +8%
Will anyone say "Crazy" during Rick and Morty E3 S9? Jun 08 $25 $0 +1%
Will anyone say "Planet" during Rick and Morty E3 S9? Jun 08 $17 +$3 +16%
Will anyone say "Summer" during Rick and Morty E3 S9? Jun 08 $17 +$3 +16%
Will anyone say "China" or "Chinese" during Rick and Morty E3 S9? Jun 08 $25 $0 +1%
Will anyone say "Ninja" during Rick and Morty E3 S9? Jun 08 $15 $0 +1%
Will anyone say "Genius" during Rick and Morty E3 S9? Jun 08 $54 +$3 +5%
Will anyone say "Assassin" during Rick and Morty E3 S9? Jun 08 $15 $0 +1%
Will anyone say "Minecraft" during Rick and Morty E3 S9? Jun 08 $7 $0 +2%
Will anyone say "Existence" during Rick and Morty E3 S9? Jun 08 $33 +$2 +8%
Will anyone say "Fortnite" during Rick and Morty E3 S9? Jun 08 $41 $0 +1%
Will anyone say "Bunker" during Rick and Morty E3 S9? Jun 08 $6 $0 +2%
Will anyone say "Space" during Rick and Morty E3 S9? Jun 08 $7 $0 +3%
Will anyone say "Jerry" during Rick and Morty E3 S9? Jun 08 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 BUY No 96¢ $69 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 95¢ $70 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 94¢ $231 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 93¢ $95 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 93¢ $10 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 BUY No 93¢ $8 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 93¢ $37 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 92¢ $46 1h
Will anyone say "Existence" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? SELL No 100¢ $51 2h
Will anyone say "Space" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? SELL No 99¢ $86 2h
Will anyone say "Dimensional" or "Interdimensional" during Rick and Mo SELL No 99¢ $60 2h
Will anyone say "Password" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 27h
Will anyone say "Space" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY No 82¢ $12 27h
Will anyone say "Jerry" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY Yes 84¢ $36 36h
Will anyone say "Space" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY No 80¢ $18 36h
Will anyone say "Password" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY Yes 80¢ $16 36h
Will anyone say "Summer" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY Yes 81¢ $7 37h
Will anyone say "Jerry" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY Yes 81¢ $16 37h
Will anyone say "Space" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY No 79¢ $25 37h
Will anyone say "Morty" 10+ times during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY Yes 86¢ $6 37h
Will anyone say "Space" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY No 51¢ $9 37h
Will anyone say "Fish" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY Yes 69¢ $46 37h
Will anyone say "Robot" or "Bot" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY Yes 70¢ $16 37h
Will anyone say "Robot" or "Bot" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 37h
Will anyone say "Dimensional" or "Interdimensional" during Rick and Mo BUY No 72¢ $44 37h
Will anyone say "Summer" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY Yes 74¢ $39 38h
Will anyone say "Existence" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY No 73¢ $38 38h
Will anyone say "Fish" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY Yes 76¢ $42 38h
Will anyone say "Suck" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY Yes 72¢ $36 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $488.16 · official $488.16 (match) · 481 history records