Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:21:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c57…5b16 other 270 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d only
✗ bot/MM pace (337 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$90,842 (+43%) realized +$87,803 · open +$3,039
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +207% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +127% what you keep after slip
Net edge+127%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%93W / 118L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$787per market
Trades / day336.8pace
Fees−$214est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$80,642now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11,215
7 days+$5,524
14 days+$42,098
30 days+$42,098
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$43,068
sports 6% +$10,123
crypto 2% −$584
world 0% −$1,853
politics 0% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (337 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+178.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 177 +37.4% +24.3% 34% 27% -6.3%
≤30d 211 +207.4% +178.1% 44% 38% +11.8%
≤90d 211 +207.4% +178.1% 44% 38% +11.8%
all 211 +207.4% +178.1% 44% 38% +11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover336.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +178.1% 38% +11.8%
10% +151.5% 36% +1.1%
15% ← realistic here +127.2% 36% -8.7%
20% +104.9% 35% -17.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +207% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$640) neutral
Persistence
early +363% → late +54% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
11.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$907 vs −$358 · ×2.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$80,642
Realized+$87,803
Unrealized+$3,039
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses93 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$214
Open positions154
Markets (closed)211 / 270
History coverage9d ⚠
Avg bet$787
Trades / day336.8
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 154 History 211 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 94¢ $2,822 $3,028 +$206 (+7%)
Will Cape Verde reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 93¢ $2,714 $2,797 +$83 (+3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 94¢ $2,308 $2,349 +$40 (+2%)
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 76¢ $2,332 $2,295 −$37 (-2%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 84¢ $2,111 $2,286 +$176 (+8%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $2,086 $2,144 +$59 (+3%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 70¢ $2,077 $2,115 +$38 (+2%)
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $1,994 $1,980 −$14 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 21¢ $484 $1,971 +$1,487 (+307%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 66¢ $1,996 $1,964 −$32 (-2%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 62¢ $2,033 $1,878 −$154 (-8%)
Will Egypt reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 90¢ $1,757 $1,809 +$52 (+3%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 62¢ $1,649 $1,772 +$123 (+7%)
Will Algeria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 69¢ $1,932 $1,759 −$172 (-9%)
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 86¢ $1,660 $1,710 +$49 (+3%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 84¢ $1,438 $1,670 +$232 (+16%)
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 60¢ $1,530 $1,470 −$61 (-4%)
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $1,408 $1,433 +$26 (+2%)
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 72¢ $1,430 $1,432 +$3 (+0%)
Will Sweden reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 88¢ $1,212 $1,229 +$17 (+1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 82¢ $1,145 $1,216 +$71 (+6%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 65¢ $1,208 $1,185 −$23 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 77¢ $1,187 $1,156 −$31 (-3%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 90¢ $1,151 $1,147 −$4 (-0%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $1,097 $1,120 +$23 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 138 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $17 −$92 -550%
Will Patrick Rodgers win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 28 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $17 −$92 -550%
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 28 $192 −$192 -100%
Will Iraq win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $17 −$92 -550%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $782 −$782 -100%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $673 −$334 -50%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $51 −$90 -177%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $51 −$90 -177%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $355 −$355 -100%
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $21 −$19 -90%
Will Jordan win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $352 −$352 -100%
Will Ryo Hisatsune win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 28 $78 −$73 -94%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $92 −$92 -100%
Will John Parry win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 28 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Pierceson Coody win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 28 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Maverick McNealy win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 28 $78 −$25 -32%
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $123 −$123 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $801 −$801 -100%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $379 −$379 -100%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $17 −$92 -550%
Will Alex Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 28 $72 +$333 +465%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $140 −$140 -100%
Will JT Poston win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 28 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Zac Blair win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 28 $73 +$222 +302%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $17 −$92 -550%
Will Max McGreevy win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 28 $78 −$73 -94%
Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $316 −$316 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Sung-Jae Im win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 28 $78 −$73 -94%
Will Ben Griffin win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 28 $78 −$33 -43%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $92 −$92 -100%
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $165 −$165 -100%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $723 +$2,276 +315%
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $405 +$2,594 +640%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $303 +$2,197 +725%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $705 +$473 +67%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $251 +$1,049 +418%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $926 +$858 +93%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $270 +$730 +270%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $290 −$290 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 20m
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $37 28m
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $24 48m
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 48m
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 17¢ $39 58m
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 77¢ $138 1h
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 61¢ $8 1h
Will Senegal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $90 1h
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 17¢ $0 1h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $66 1h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $358 1h
Will Sweden reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $24 1h
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 84¢ $420 1h
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $125 1h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $210 1h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 1h
Will Croatia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 67¢ $86 1h
Will Croatia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 67¢ $40 1h
Will Croatia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 67¢ $210 1h
Will Algeria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 69¢ $26 1h
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 61¢ $23 1h
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $79 1h
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $16 1h
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 1h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $2 1h
Will Croatia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 67¢ $30 1h
Will Egypt reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 43¢ $1 2h
Will Croatia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 67¢ $41 2h
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $106 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80,642.34 · official $80,613.00 (match) · 3500 history records