Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:16:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5C
0x5c57…2b08
world · 88 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$32
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses71 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)76 / 88
History coverage213d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 12 History 76 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$18
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? No 83¢ 78¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 86¢ 82¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? No 84¢ 84¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Greece recognize Palestine before 2027? No 82¢ 88¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 71¢ 58¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-18%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 84¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 83¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 95¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? No 89¢ 88¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 58¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-31%)
Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? No 90¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 87¢ 65¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? No 73¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -43%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $1 $0 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $1 $0 +18%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +53%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $1 $0 +38%
Will Russia enter Svitle by June 30? Jun 08 $1 $0 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 06 $1 $0 +10%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 03 $24 −$24 -100%
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 +14%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $2 $0 +8%
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by May 31? Jun 02 $4 $0 +4%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 02 $11 +$1 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $6 $0 +8%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? Jun 01 $33 +$2 +7%
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by May 31? May 31 $2 $0 +4%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 30 $1 $0 +11%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 30 $3 +$1 +39%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $1 $0 +6%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? May 29 $52 −$1 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by May 31? May 28 $2 $0 +2%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 28 $6 +$1 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $2 $0 +9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 28 $1 $0 +6%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? May 27 $4 $0 +7%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31? May 27 $2 $0 +1%
OPEC dissolves in 2026? May 27 $2 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 25 $2 $0 +21%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 25 $1 $0 +15%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 24 $1 $0 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $3 +$1 +26%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 24 $2 +$1 +32%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $3 +$1 +23%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $3 $0 +16%
Houthi military action against Israel by April 30, 2026? May 03 $4 +$1 +23%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 03 $5 +$1 +14%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 25 $6 +$1 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 25 $5 +$2 +31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $5 +$1 +19%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $3 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Apr 20 $2 $0 +2%
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, Apr 20 $1 $0 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 20 $2 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 47% +$21
other 31% −$22
politics 15% −$1
crypto 3% $0
sports 2% +$1
finance 1% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $2 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $1 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 97¢ $2 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? SELL No 97¢ $1 25h
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? SELL No 84¢ $1 25h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $1 25h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1 25h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $2 36h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $1 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $1 36h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 92¢ $1 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? SELL No 96¢ $1 36h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $1 41h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $1 41h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 82¢ $1 41h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1 41h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 94¢ $1 2d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $1 2d
Will Greece recognize Palestine before 2027? SELL No 85¢ $8 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY No 84¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? BUY No 85¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $1 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 90¢ $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $1 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 89¢ $1 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 98¢ $2 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? SELL No 100¢ $1 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 64¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +8.1% -2.2% 92% 50% -2.6%
≤30d 41 +7.3% -2.9% 93% 39% -15.9%
≤90d 68 +8.0% -2.3% 94% 44% -10.8%
all 76 +8.8% -1.6% 93% 46% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.6% 46% -9.5%
10% -11.0% 14% -18.1%
15% -19.6% 5% -26.0%
20% -27.5% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.73 · official $31.67 (match) · 214 history records