Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5C 0x5c55…484e crypto 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,874 (-19%) realized −$5,872 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate37%44W / 76L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$247per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$304now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$176
7 days−$176
14 days−$176
30 days−$173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$5,489
other 4% −$1,086
weather 4% −$254
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -65.8% -69.0% 33% 0% -62.4%
≤90d 113 -17.8% -25.7% 35% 31% -29.7%
all 120 -17.3% -25.2% 37% 32% -30.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 32% -30.7%
10% -32.3% 32% -37.3%
15% -38.9% 30% -43.4%
20% -44.9% 24% -48.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
14.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$192 vs −$201 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$304
Realized−$5,872
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses44 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)120 / 123
History coverage157d
Avg bet$247
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $205 $204 −$1 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $31 $31 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $128 −$76 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 28 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Arvell Reese be drafted in the top 5 picks of the 2026 NFL Draft? Apr 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 17 $494 −$481 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 17 $931 −$575 -62%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 17 $638 −$620 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 17 $95 −$93 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 16 $357 +$595 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Apr 16 $818 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Apr 16 $40 −$38 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Apr 16 $634 +$223 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Apr 16 $701 −$42 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Apr 16 $106 +$363 +342%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on April 14? Apr 16 $63 +$49 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 14? Apr 16 $364 +$23 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 14? Apr 14 $106 −$106 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 14? Apr 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Apr 14 $600 −$600 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 14 $303 −$303 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Apr 14 $75 −$75 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 14? Apr 14 $143 −$143 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Apr 14 $933 −$933 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Apr 14 $1,064 −$1,064 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 14 $611 +$359 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Apr 14 $800 +$425 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Apr 14 $200 −$99 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Apr 14 $324 +$95 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Apr 14 $462 −$462 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Apr 14 $300 −$300 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Apr 14 $859 +$9 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Apr 14 $21 −$3 -13%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Apr 14 $583 +$317 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Apr 14 $498 +$302 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 13? Apr 14 $217 −$154 -71%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 14 $350 −$350 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on April 13? Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 14? Apr 14 $56 −$53 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 14? Apr 14 $25 −$24 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 14? Apr 14 $9 −$9 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on April 13? Apr 14 $8 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 13? Apr 14 $164 +$203 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 13 $1,010 −$1,010 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 13 $230 −$220 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 13 $198 +$158 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 13 $299 +$156 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 13 $319 −$302 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 13 $260 −$228 -88%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 13 $300 +$197 +66%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 13 $724 +$380 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $32 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $72 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $210 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $103 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 19d
Will Arvell Reese be drafted in the top 5 picks of the 2026 NFL Draft? BUY No 6¢ $5 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $494 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $19 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $73 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $3 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $16 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $57 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $1 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $2 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $16 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $1 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $1 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $1 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $10 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $1 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $150 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $1 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $1 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $2 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $304.02 · official $304.02 (match) · 2266 history records