Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:37:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5C 0x5c4b…4543 crypto 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$9 (+7%) realized +$32 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day38.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$7
other 9% −$1
sports 8% −$10
politics 4% $0
world 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +16.9% +5.8% 55% 45% -3.2%
≤30d 11 +16.9% +5.8% 55% 45% -3.2%
≤90d 11 +16.9% +5.8% 55% 45% -3.2%
all 11 +16.9% +5.8% 55% 45% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.8% 45% -3.2%
10% ← realistic here -4.3% 45% -12.4%
15% -13.6% 27% -20.9%
20% -22.1% 27% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$32
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)11 / 21
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day38.0
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? No 52¢ 51¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$9 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$10 +195%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $24 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $10 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 46m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.88 · official $18.10 (match) · 38 history records