Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:06:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
5C 0x5c49…7295 other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%1W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$1
politics 50% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.5% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.7%
all 12 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses1 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage84d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $113 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $114 −$1 -1%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $114 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $115 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $115 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $115 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $115 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $115 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $116 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $116 $0 +0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $116 $0 +0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $117 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $113 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $113 17h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $113 11d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $114 12d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $114 20d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $114 21d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $114 29d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $115 29d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $115 31d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $115 31d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $115 33d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $115 33d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $115 36d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $115 37d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $115 43d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $115 43d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $116 59d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $116 60d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $116 64d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $116 65d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $116 74d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $116 74d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $116 83d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $117 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records