Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:16:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

5C 0x5c47…2121 crypto 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$16 (+3%) realized +$19 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip

Net edge-20%after slip

Net WR36%break-even

Win rate36%5W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$29per market

Trades / day33.5pace

Kalshi-fit83%portable

Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +36%

net ROI/market (all)-6.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	+3.9%	-6.0%	36%	36%	-49.2%
≤30d	14	+3.9%	-6.0%	36%	36%	-49.2%
≤90d	14	+3.9%	-6.0%	36%	36%	-49.2%
all	14	+3.9%	-6.0%	36%	36%	-49.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover33.5 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-6.0%	36%	-49.2%
10% ← realistic here	-15.0%	36%	-54.1%
15%	-23.2%	36%	-58.5%
20%	-30.8%	36%	-62.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 46% · top 2 69% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +4% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +38% → late -30% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$17 vs −$26 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.36 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$161

Realized+$19

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)36%

Wins / losses5 / 9

Open positions4

Markets (closed)14 / 18

History coverage1d

Avg bet$29

Trades / day33.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	43¢	42¢	$75	$74	−$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	58¢	56¢	$58	$57	−$2 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	23¢	23¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-1%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	52¢	52¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Jun 29	$100	−$100	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Jun 29	$112	−$83	-74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Jun 29	$32	+$39	+124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Jun 29	$16	−$13	-78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Jun 29	$12	−$12	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Jun 29	$11	+$10	+84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Jun 29	$11	−$7	-67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3AM ET	Jun 29	$5	−$5	-100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Jun 29	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Jun 29	$4	+$19	+450%
Bitcoin above 60,200 on June 29, 3AM ET?	Jun 29	$9	−$9	-100%
Bitcoin above 59,400 on June 28, 9PM ET?	Jun 29	$10	+$8	+77%
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 28?	Jun 28	$11	+$9	+79%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 28?	Jun 28	$7	−$3	-41%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	58¢	$49	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	43¢	$51	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$100	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Down	30¢	$39	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Down	40¢	$52	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	SELL Up	63¢	$29	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Up	37¢	$10	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$10	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	SELL Down	62¢	$71	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	BUY Down	21¢	$11	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	BUY Down	28¢	$21	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	SELL Down	3¢	$3	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	BUY Down	12¢	$16	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	BUY Up	4¢	$11	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	BUY Up	10¢	$1	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	BUY Up	17¢	$1	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	SELL Up	63¢	$16	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	BUY Up	38¢	$10	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	SELL Up	9¢	$3	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	BUY Up	24¢	$11	2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	23¢	$10	2h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	52¢	$10	3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	58¢	$10	3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	23¢	$5	3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	43¢	$10	3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3AM ET	BUY Up	43¢	$5	3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	BUY Up	34¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	SELL Up	100¢	$23	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	BUY Up	17¢	$4	3h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.65 · official $161.67 (match) · 47 history records