Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:26:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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5C 0x5c47…3dc1 crypto 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-3%) realized −$8 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate73%11W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$3
other 7% $0
sports 6% −$9
tech 4% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.6% -8.9% 82% 36% -11.1%
≤30d 11 +0.6% -8.9% 82% 36% -11.1%
≤90d 15 -4.4% -13.5% 73% 40% -14.8%
all 15 -4.4% -13.5% 73% 40% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 40% -14.8%
10% -21.8% 27% -22.9%
15% -29.4% 13% -30.4%
20% -36.3% 7% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses11 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)15 / 20
History coverage51d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 65¢ 96¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+47%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 92¢ 93¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 84¢ 84¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
AI bubble burst in 2026? No 88¢ 78¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $14 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$4 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$8 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$15 -71%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Vici Gaming (BO5) - ACL X ESL Challenger Ch May 03 $5 −$5 -99%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger Ch May 02 $2 +$2 +104%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Resilience (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger May 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $4 +$1 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 8m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $4 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 2h
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY No 84¢ $4 44d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Vici Gaming (BO5) - ACL X ESL Challenger Ch BUY Team Resilience 70¢ $5 45d
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger Ch SELL Yakult Brothers 75¢ $1 46d
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger Ch SELL Yakult Brothers 75¢ $3 46d
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger Ch BUY Yakult Brothers 36¢ $2 46d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Resilience (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger BUY Xtreme Gaming 38¢ $2 46d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Resilience (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger BUY Xtreme Gaming 75¢ $4 46d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $5 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.37 · official $22.37 (match) · 45 history records