Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:51:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c46…753d crypto 322 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3185 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$138,070 (+988%) realized +$138,113 · open −$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate52%162W / 150L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day3185.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$393
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3185 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 312 -4.7% -13.8% 52% 45% -6.6%
≤30d 312 -4.7% -13.8% 52% 45% -6.6%
≤90d 312 -4.7% -13.8% 52% 45% -6.6%
all 312 -4.7% -13.8% 52% 45% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3185.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 45% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 35% -15.6%
15% -29.6% 25% -23.7%
20% -36.5% 17% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$17 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized+$138,113
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses162 / 150
Open positions9
Markets (closed)312 / 322
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$43
Trades / day3185.0
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 312 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Up 89¢ 90¢ $140 $140 +$0 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Down 18¢ 12¢ $45 $31 −$14 (-32%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Down 51¢ 62¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+21%)
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Up 50¢ 74¢ $4 $5 +$2 (+48%)
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Up 62¢ 78¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+27%)
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Up 39¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$14 (-97%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Down 39¢ 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-73%)
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-99%)
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $66 +$8 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$13 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$1 -6%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $66 +$18 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $149 −$13 -9%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $38 +$13 +34%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$24 +115%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +138%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $28 +$36 +128%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$29 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $45 −$31 -69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $182 +$111 +61%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $119 −$13 -11%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$1 -5%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $98 +$17 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $82 +$40 +49%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$12 +72%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $42 +$52 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $248 −$176 -71%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $210 −$1 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $124 −$2 -2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $83 −$79 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $110 −$43 -39%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $104 −$24 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $189 +$19 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $75 −$33 -44%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $33 +$6 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $111 −$7 -7%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $200 +$38 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $200 +$56 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $92 +$31 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$2 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $24 +$13 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $4 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $8 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $7 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $33 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $74 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $4 1m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $3 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $7 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $0 3m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.13 · official $184.51 · 3500 history records