Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:28:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5C 0x5c45…7786 world 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8,668 (-11%) realized −$8,700 · open +$32
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate83%90W / 18L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$756per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$172now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$438
14 days+$437
30 days+$506
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$9,089
politics 25% −$702
other 13% +$578
crypto 7% +$503
sports 1% +$25
economics 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +2.1% -7.6% 91% 27% -0.7%
≤30d 14 +2.3% -7.5% 86% 21% -2.3%
≤90d 18 +17.3% +6.1% 89% 33% +4.7%
all 108 +4.1% -5.8% 83% 26% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 26% -19.1%
10% -14.8% 10% -26.8%
15% -23.1% 6% -33.9%
20% -30.6% 3% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$785 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$172
Realized−$8,700
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses90 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)108 / 109
History coverage536d
Avg bet$756
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? No 77¢ 94¢ $140 $172 +$32 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $201 +$37 +18%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $210 +$9 +4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $790 +$428 +54%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $221 −$220 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $200 +$10 +5%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $200 +$8 +4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $600 +$14 +2%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $301 +$24 +8%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $860 +$83 +10%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $821 +$32 +4%
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish par Jun 14 $292 −$1 -0%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 12 $809 +$20 +2%
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives i May 31 $761 +$48 +6%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? May 28 $232 +$530 +228%
Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? May 07 $200 +$32 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $182 +$17 +9%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by April 30? May 01 $146 +$38 +26%
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Mar 25 $141 +$4 +3%
Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by March 31? Mar 20 $704 −$704 -100%
Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $690 +$15 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 24 $139 +$2 +2%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 23 $137 +$2 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? Feb 19 $136 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stag Feb 18 $92 +$43 +47%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28? Feb 18 $88 +$4 +5%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 10 $668 +$22 +3%
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by January 31? Feb 02 $271 +$49 +18%
Will Russia capture Zarichne by March 31, 2026? Jan 21 $652 +$15 +2%
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electi Jan 19 $388 +$20 +5%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 19 $205 +$39 +19%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Jan 12 $232 −$27 -12%
Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by December 31? Jan 01 $472 +$187 +40%
Will Russia recapture territory in Kucheriv Yar by November 30? Dec 01 $363 +$108 +30%
Will Jacob Frey win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election? Nov 05 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $316 +$45 +14%
Will Russia capture Siversk by October 31? Oct 28 $314 +$2 +1%
Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 25 $227 +$87 +39%
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31? Oct 13 $198 +$28 +14%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30? Oct 01 $162 +$36 +22%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $151 +$11 +7%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by September 30? Sep 17 $128 +$23 +18%
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by September 30? Sep 04 $119 +$10 +8%
Will Russia capture Rodynske by August 31? Aug 30 $27 +$1 +6%
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by August 31? Aug 26 $24 +$3 +12%
Will Russia capture Rodynske by August 20? Aug 21 $82 +$8 +10%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? Aug 17 $2,562 +$343 +13%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31? Aug 08 $5,897 −$5,384 -91%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? Jul 19 $1,443 +$259 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $109K on July 9? Jul 08 $1,532 −$166 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 77¢ $40 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 77¢ $101 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 84¢ $201 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 96¢ $210 29h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 93¢ $1,217 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 59¢ $790 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 83¢ $221 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 95¢ $200 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 88¢ $100 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 96¢ $200 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 98¢ $600 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 92¢ $100 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 93¢ $200 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $8 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $852 5d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $821 6d
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish par SELL No 96¢ $264 13d
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish par SELL No 97¢ $27 15d
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish par BUY No 96¢ $292 15d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 99¢ $829 15d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes 96¢ $809 24d
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives i BUY Yes 94¢ $4 30d
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives i BUY Yes 94¢ $757 30d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 51d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? BUY Yes 29¢ $229 51d
Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? SELL Yes 90¢ $232 51d
Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? BUY Yes 77¢ $200 55d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $9 57d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $173 57d
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by April 30? BUY No 79¢ $146 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $171.82 · official $171.82 (match) · 438 history records