Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:51:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c41…8794 sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$86 (-34%) realized −$80 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day36.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$6
sports 37% −$88
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-57.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -53.2% -57.6% 33% 25% -94.1%
≤30d 12 -53.2% -57.6% 33% 25% -94.1%
≤90d 12 -53.2% -57.6% 33% 25% -94.1%
all 12 -53.2% -57.6% 33% 25% -94.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -57.6% 25% -94.1%
10% ← realistic here -61.7% 17% -94.7%
15% -65.4% 8% -95.2%
20% -68.8% 0% -95.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -94% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -94% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late -63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$11 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$143
Realized−$80
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day36.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $148 $142 −$6 (-4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 25 $1 $0 +23%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 25 $1 $0 +2%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1 $0 +11%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 25 $1 $0 +41%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 24 $42 −$42 -100%
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? Jun 24 $1 $0 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 21¢ $157 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 4h
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 37¢ $1 5h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? BUY No 35¢ $1 5h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers SELL New York Yankees 100¢ $1 5h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets SELL Chicago Cubs 79¢ $1 5h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 76¢ $1 6h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 80¢ $1 6h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Scotland 52¢ $2 8h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Scotland 52¢ $1 8h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Scotland 52¢ $1 8h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Scotland 52¢ $3 8h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Scotland 52¢ $2 8h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Seattle Mariners 57¢ $6 8h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Seattle Mariners 57¢ $1 8h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Seattle Mariners 57¢ $1 8h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Scotland 52¢ $2 8h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Scotland 52¢ $1 8h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 70¢ $1 8h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Scotland 52¢ $1 8h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Seattle Mariners 57¢ $1 8h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Scotland 52¢ $1 8h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Seattle Mariners 57¢ $1 8h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Scotland 52¢ $1 8h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Scotland 52¢ $1 8h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? BUY No $1 8h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? BUY No $2 8h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? BUY No $1 8h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? BUY No $1 8h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 42¢ $8 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.91 · official $142.91 (match) · 45 history records