Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:43:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5C 0x5c3d…f59c other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$421now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% +$27
sports 7% +$12
crypto 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +31.5% +19.0% 29% 29% +2.4%
≤30d 7 +31.5% +19.0% 29% 29% +2.4%
≤90d 7 +31.5% +19.0% 29% 29% +2.4%
all 7 +31.5% +19.0% 29% 29% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +19.0% 29% +2.4%
10% ← realistic here +7.6% 29% -7.4%
15% -2.8% 14% -16.4%
20% -12.3% 14% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$8 · ×4.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$421
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)7 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 34¢ $50 $62 +$12 (+23%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$23 -46%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Austria? Jun 20 $5 −$2 -37%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Austria? Jun 20 $5 −$2 -38%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $5 +$24 +474%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $201 +$55 +27%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 20 $15 −$9 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 27¢ $28 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Austria? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Austria? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 3h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 4h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 5h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 5h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 78¢ $201 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $420.69 · official $420.71 (match) · 30 history records