Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:44:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c3c…fc27 other 245 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$71 (-0%) realized −$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 234L
Whale WR4%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$245per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$15
14 days−$24
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$44
sports 20% −$18
politics 8% −$7
economics 7% −$5
crypto 7% $0
culture 6% −$7
world 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 57 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 161 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 244 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 4% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 234
Whale WR (big bets)4%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)244 / 245
History coverage141d
Avg bet$245
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $67 $67 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $409 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $515 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $808 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $239 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $727 −$2 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $518 +$1 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $69 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $276 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $291 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $171 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $270 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $925 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $442 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1,036 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $303 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $71 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $548 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $768 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $213 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $160 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $150 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $793 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $519 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $314 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $390 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $386 $0 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $349 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $155 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $249 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $355 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $342 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $730 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $318 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 03 $423 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $254 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $463 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $663 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 30 $353 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $245 $0 -0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? May 30 $154 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $338 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $656 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $67 1h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $67 2h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $67 4h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $67 20h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $67 21h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $67 23h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $68 24h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $68 33h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $68 35h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $68 36h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $68 38h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $68 42h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $68 44h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $68 45h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $68 47h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $68 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $68 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $68 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $68 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $68 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $68 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $68 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $68 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $68 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $69 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $69 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $69 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $69 3d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $69 3d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $69 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.18 · official $67.18 (match) · 1397 history records