Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:36:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c3c…992d other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 218d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+5%) realized +$117 · open −$93
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$45
14 days+$45
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$52
other 17% −$23
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-37.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +8.3% -2.0% 57% 43% +8.8%
≤30d 7 +8.3% -2.0% 57% 43% +8.8%
≤90d 9 -15.8% -23.8% 44% 33% +2.4%
all 11 -31.1% -37.6% 36% 27% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.6% 27% -3.6%
10% -43.6% 27% -12.8%
15% -49.1% 27% -21.3%
20% -54.1% 18% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$12 · ×2.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$117
Unrealized−$93
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage218d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 60¢ $93 $0 −$93 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $21 +$1 +6%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $13 +$5 +40%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $3 −$1 -28%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $12 −$1 -10%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $70 +$49 +70%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $52 +$41 +79%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $13 −$12 -96%
Will Gold close between $3900 and $4000 at the end of 2025? Nov 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Gold close between $3800 and $3900 at the end of 2025? Nov 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 65¢ $32 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $22 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $19 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $11 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 57¢ $62 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 41¢ $62 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $15 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 51¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 59¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 62¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 68¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 53¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 56¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 60¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 69¢ $31 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 31¢ $3 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 44¢ $25 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 26¢ $22 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $120 26h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 28¢ $3 29h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 40¢ $4 29h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 48¢ $10 29h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 56¢ $20 30h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 75¢ $33 30h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $93 31h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $52 34h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $13 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.08 · official $0.08 (match) · 50 history records