Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:07:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5C 0x5c37…fa6e weather 77 markets active 13h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$185 (-2%) realized −$185 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%75W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 73% −$188
crypto 27% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 23 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 76 -1.1% -10.5% 99% 0% -11.0%
all 76 -1.1% -10.5% 99% 0% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -11.0%
10% -19.1% 0% -19.5%
15% -26.9% 0% -27.3%
20% -34.1% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$211 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$135
Realized−$185
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses75 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)76 / 77
History coverage81d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C or higher on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $135 $135 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $135 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 14? Jun 14 $34 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C or below on June 9? Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 8? Jun 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 9°C or below on June 8? Jun 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $133 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $133 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $133 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 4? Jun 04 $133 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 3? Jun 03 $132 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $132 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C or below on May 31? Jun 01 $132 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on May 29? May 30 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or higher on May 29? May 29 $111 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on May 28? May 28 $132 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C or below on May 26? May 25 $132 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or higher on May 24? May 23 $132 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on May 22? May 21 $131 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on May 18? May 20 $131 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 22°C or below on May 16? May 15 $131 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 23°C or below on May 2? May 01 $131 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 29? Apr 29 $131 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 28? Apr 29 $130 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C or below on April 28? Apr 28 $131 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 11? Apr 11 $213 −$211 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 10 Apr 11 $212 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on April 10? Apr 10 $154 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 10? Apr 10 $156 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on April 10? Apr 10 $278 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 10? Apr 10 $84 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 8? Apr 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 4? Apr 09 $773 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on April 7? Apr 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on April 6? Apr 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on April 5? Apr 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C on April 4? Apr 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 4? Apr 05 $137 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 37°C or higher on Apri Apr 05 $199 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on April 4? Apr 05 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on April 4? Apr 05 $585 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on April 4? Apr 04 $221 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on April 4? Apr 04 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on April 4? Apr 04 $915 +$2 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on April 5? Apr 04 $442 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $40 on April 3? Apr 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $130 on April 3? Apr 04 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $135 12h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $135 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $34 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $100 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $34 6d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $100 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C or higher on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $34 8d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $19 9d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 9°C or below on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $14 9d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C or below on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $100 9d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $133 10d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $133 11d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $133 12d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $133 13d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $132 14d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $132 15d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C or below on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $132 18d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $20 19d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or higher on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $111 19d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $132 21d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C or below on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $132 24d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or higher on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $132 25d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $131 27d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $131 32d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 22°C or below on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $131 34d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 23°C or below on May 2? BUY No 100¢ $131 47d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $131 49d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $130 50d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C or below on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $131 51d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 11? BUY No 79¢ $213 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.86 · official $134.86 (match) · 189 history records