Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:29:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c33…783c politics 258 markets active 2d ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate22%56W / 200L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$7
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$10
other 28% $0
sports 9% −$1
crypto 7% +$1
world 5% −$2
economics 1% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.4% -9.9% 3% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 89 -0.5% -10.0% 8% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 154 -0.2% -9.7% 12% 0% -9.9%
all 256 -0.7% -10.2% 22% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses56 / 200
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)256 / 258
History coverage137d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 256 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $13 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $35 $0 -1%
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? Jun 13 $27 $0 -1%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $74 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $28 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $52 $0 -0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jun 12 $33 −$2 -5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $28 $0 -1%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $18 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $33 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $21 −$1 -4%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $33 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $41 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $43 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $49 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $70 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $30 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $44 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $27 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $23 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $69 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $37 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $28 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $31 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $29 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $33 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $90 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $45 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $34 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $41 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $72 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $27 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $9 $0 -1%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $32 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11PM ET Jun 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $26 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $14 $0 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $52 $0 -0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $45 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $27 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY No 96¢ $5 36h
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $5 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $10 2d
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? SELL No 82¢ $7 3d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $5 4d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 4d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $9 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $9 4d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $7 4d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $7 4d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $6 4d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL No 51¢ $10 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 4d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $10 4d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $8 4d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $8 4d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $7 4d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $7 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $6 5d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $7 5d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $7 5d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $8 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $5 5d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 5d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $9 5d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 5d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.23 · official $16.23 (match) · 1497 history records