Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:25:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5C 0x5c32…efef other 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 440d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate69%20W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days−$15
14 days+$56
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 66% +$85
other 28% −$55
culture 2% −$50
crypto 2% +$27
world 2% +$3
sports 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.2% -9.4% 78% 56% -13.2%
≤30d 17 +20.5% +9.0% 82% 71% -0.9%
≤90d 17 +20.5% +9.0% 82% 71% -0.9%
all 29 -0.5% -10.0% 69% 48% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 48% -8.7%
10% -18.6% 38% -17.4%
15% -26.5% 24% -25.4%
20% -33.7% 14% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$33 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

440d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses20 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage440d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 +$17 +43%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$7 +13%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $60 +$13 +21%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$7 +25%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 +$26 +84%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$7 +23%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$12 +116%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $40 +$7 +16%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$31 +101%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$17 +114%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $42 +$15 +35%
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +43%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? May 19 $100 −$22 -22%
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? May 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 May 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the next Pope be from Europe? May 09 $100 −$41 -41%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? May 08 $160 +$11 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $99000 and $101000 on May 9? May 08 $10 +$1 +10%
Will 'Zootopia 2' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? May 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "America" 10+ times during his University of Alabama co May 02 $20 +$9 +45%
Will Anthony Albanese be the next Prime Minister of Australia after th May 01 $360 +$21 +6%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 29 $554 +$20 +4%
Will the Liberal Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election? Apr 29 $278 +$77 +28%
Will Trump lower tariffs on Israel next? Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $58 25m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $30 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $55 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $50 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $50 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 100¢ $73 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 82¢ $60 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $60 5d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $11 5d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 99¢ $38 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 99¢ $56 6d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 79¢ $30 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $30 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 80¢ $37 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 7d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 58¢ $22 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 95¢ $47 7d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $40 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $61 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $30 9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 81¢ $33 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 94¢ $57 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $42 9d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? SELL Yes 62¢ $78 397d
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 BUY No 50¢ $50 405d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 60 history records