trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 8 | +20.7% | +9.2% | 88% | 50% | +8.6% |
| ≤90d | 24 | -9.4% | -18.0% | 62% | 21% | -7.0% |
| all | 27 | -12.8% | -21.1% | 59% | 19% | -10.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -21.1% | 19% | -10.6% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -28.7% | 15% | -19.2% |
| 15% | -35.6% | 15% | -27.0% |
| 20% | -41.9% | 11% | -34.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 23¢ | $12,322 | $17,565 | +$5,243 (+43%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 10¢ | 6¢ | $6,799 | $3,770 | −$3,029 (-45%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 11¢ | $2,900 | $1,946 | −$954 (-33%) |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 10¢ | $1,286 | $1,210 | −$77 (-6%) |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 4¢ | 5¢ | $896 | $1,139 | +$243 (+27%) |
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $850 | $675 | −$175 (-21%) |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 4¢ | $556 | $415 | −$142 (-25%) |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $198 | $116 | −$82 (-42%) |
| Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $120 | $77 | −$43 (-36%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 15 | $18,162 | +$16,838 | +93% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 10 | $13,299 | +$2,358 | +18% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 10 | $7,511 | −$4,443 | -59% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? | Jun 08 | $52,200 | +$2,428 | +5% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 06 | $735 | +$735 | +100% |
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele | May 31 | $68 | +$2 | +3% |
| Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $370 in May? | May 30 | $377 | +$142 | +38% |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in May? | May 30 | $878 | +$27 | +3% |
| Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May? | May 29 | $1,122 | −$131 | -12% |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May? | May 27 | $4,900 | +$6 | +0% |
| Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 in May? | May 27 | $5,623 | +$301 | +5% |
| Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $312 in May? | May 26 | $233 | +$232 | +99% |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May? | May 25 | $790 | +$53 | +7% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? | May 24 | $37,200 | $0 | +0% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? | May 24 | $12,450 | +$750 | +6% |
| Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $380 in May? | May 24 | $43 | −$3 | -7% |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May? | May 23 | $14,000 | −$14,000 | -100% |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in May? | May 23 | $82 | −$82 | -100% |
| Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $320 in May? | May 23 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 21? | May 21 | $508 | +$19 | +4% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 21? | May 21 | $1,012 | −$73 | -7% |
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 19? | May 19 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | May 16 | $4,630 | +$46 | +1% |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 14? | May 14 | $24,000 | +$230 | +1% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | Dec 30 | $3,500 | −$2,700 | -77% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? | Dec 30 | $12,149 | −$5,302 | -44% |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? | Dec 26 | $495 | +$4 | +1% |